[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071024
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
624 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 05N to 18N
with axis near 24W, moving at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of mainly favorable deep layer wind shear and
abundant low moisture from the surface to 850 mb as shown by CIRA
LPW imagery. That environment along with diffluent flow aloft
support scattered showers and tstms from 06N to 16N E of 26W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic waters extending from
11N to 21N with axis near 53W. The wave has been repositioned
from former position farther to the east, based on satellite,
surface observations and latest global model guidance. Unfavorable
deep layer wind shear and Saharan dry air and dust hinder
convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean extending from 10N to
21N with axis near 72W, moving W at 10 kt within the last 24
hours. Abundant moisture in the northern wave environment along
with favorable deep layer wind shear support scattered showers and
isolated tstms from 16N to 23N between 68W and 74W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N16W to 11N24W to 07N30W to 05N36W. See the
tropical waves section for convection information. Otherwise,
scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 08N between 26W and
49W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge anchored over the SE CONUS and adjacent
waters extends SW across the basin and provides return gentle to
moderate flow. Divergent flow aloft between an upper low in the
SE basin and SW flow over the far W Caribbean support scattered to
isolated showers and tstms across the straits of Florida. Similar
convection is on the west Bay of Campeche associated with a former surface
trough. Water Vapor imagery show strong dry air subsidence across
the remainder basin, which favors fair weather elsewhere. No major
changes expected from this pattern during the next two days. A tropical
wave, currently over the central Caribbean, will move into the
Yucatan Peninsula Friday night through Saturday morning with
showers.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main concern in the basin continues to be a tropical wave that
is moving slowly across the central Caribbean generating scattered
showers and tstms over Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Please
refer to the tropical waves section for details. The second area
with active weather is the SW basin where low pressure over NW
Colombia and the presence of the monsoon trough support scattered
to isolated heavy showers and tstms S of 17N W between 76W and 83W and
within 120 nm off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds
are from 18N to 20N between 73W and 76W...including the Windward
Passage. Fair weather and moderate trades dominate elsewhere.
Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move over
the region of central Cuba and Panama with convection. The next
wave is forecast to enter the basin Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are across the island and
adjacent waters associated with a tropical wave. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue through the next 24 hours,
but weakening as the wave continues moving west. Please
refer to the tropical waves section for details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluent flow between an upper low over the SE Gulf of Mexico and
a broad upper anticyclone centered NE of Hispaniola support
isolated showers across the northern Bahamas and the Florida
straits. Just to the E-SE of the southern Bahamas and Turks and
Caicos Islands, a tropical wave moving across the central
Caribbean supports scattered showers and tstms S of 23N between
68W and 74W. A surface trough extends from 30N60W to 26N61W with
no convection. Farther east, the remnants of a former stationary
front are analyzed as a surface trough from 30N31W to 28N39W to
27N45W with isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the
boundary. Lastly, a 1013 mb low in the deep tropics near 13N48W
supports scattered heavy showers and tstms within 120 nm NW
quadrant from the low center. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by a broad but weak surface ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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