[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine at 05/1800 UTC is
near 39.1N 69.2W, about 265 nm to the south-southeast of the
eastern tip of Long Island, and about 281 nm to the northwest,
or 315 ng ENE, or 75 degrees, 5 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 997 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots. Convective precipitation:
Scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Atlantic Ocean to
the northwest of the line from 37N75W beyond 41N62W. Please read
the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under
the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave shows up
well in infrared satellite imagery. The wave has been re-
positioned, with respect to the analysis of 05/0600 UTC, in
order to agree with the satellite imagery. A 1016 mb low
pressure center is near 23N37W. The low pressure center has
moved away from the 35W/36W tropical wave. Convective
precipitation: Isolated moderate from 04N to 13N between 36W and
40W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N to 25N between
30W and 38W.

An Atlantic Ocean 1012 mb low pressure center is near 13N45W.
Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 06N to 15N between 40W and 51W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. A 1009 mb low
pressure center is along the wave near 14.5N. Convective
precipitation: Scattered strong covers the islands from
Guadeloupe to Anguilla, from 13N to 17N between 62W and 67W, and
from 13N to 15N between 67W and 71W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 12N to 19N between 60W and 73W.

An inland tropical wave is along 89W from 20N southward. The wave
runs from the Yucatan Peninsula, through Guatemala, and beyond
El Salvador. No significant deep convective precipitation.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W to 07N29W, 11N44W, and 10N53W. Convective
precipitation: Scattered strong from 06N to 08N between 24W and
27W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 02N to
10N between 09W and 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
An anticyclonic circulation center is near 28N90W. Comparatively
drier air is within 320 nm to 400 nm of the center in the SW
semicircle. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the
Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough is in the coastal waters and coastal plains
from Alabama to SW Louisiana. Convective precipitation:
Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 28.5N to 31N between
88W and 92.5W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 27N to
31N between 88W and 97W, including in parts of eastern Texas.

A surface trough is along the coast of Mexico, in the
southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 24N98W to 21N97W
to 18N96W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 25N
southward from 93W westward.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KDLP.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: Lightning is to the distant SE of Edinburg. MVFR in Port
Lavaca. Rainshowers and thunder are near Sugarland. Rainshowers
and thunder are in the Houston metropolitan area. Louisiana:
Rainshowers and thunder are in the Lake Charles metropolitan
area, in Baton Rouge, and around Lake Pontchartrain. Light
drizzle at Grand Isle. Mississippi: IFR and some MVFR in the
coastal plains. Alabama: MVFR and light rain between the Florida
Peninsula and SE Mississippi. Florida: MVFR from Crestview
and Destin westward.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 28N64W
cyclonic circulation center, to 23N70W, to Jamaica, to 14N83W
near the coast of NE Nicaragua. Convective precipitation:
Isolated moderate from 14N to 16N between 75W and 82W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Caribbean Sea on either side of the trough.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
04/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...1.06 in
Guadeloupe, 0.98 in Havana in Cuba, 0.79 in Curacao, 0.19 in
Acapulco in Mexico, 0.11 in Trinidad, and and 0.07 in San Juan
in Puerto Rico.

The monsoon trough is along 10N73W in Colombia, 09N80W, beyond
09N84W in Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: Scattered strong
from 09N to 12N from 81W westward. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 10N to 13N between 75W and 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SE to S wind flow is moving across Hispaniola now.
This wind flow is related to the jamaica cyclonic circulation
center, that is described in the Caribbean Sea section,
and in the Atlantic Ocean section.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR/no
ceilings. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/no
ceilings. Santo Domingo/Punta Cana/La Romana: VFR/no ceilings.
Santiago: MVFR. Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB: the Jamaica
cyclonic circulation center will move westward. Southerly wind
flow will move across Hispaniola, becoming SE wind flow as a
ridge cuts across the island from the Atlantic Ocean, for day
one. Day two will consist of SE wind flow becoming NE to E wind
flow, as the anticyclonic circulation center approaches
Hispaniola from the northeast more and more. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that SE wind flow will move across the
area for the next 48 hours. A ridge will approach Hispaniola
from the northeast, from the Atlantic Ocean, at the end of day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that NE to E wind
flow will be moving across the area, becomine SE by the end of
day one. Day two will consist of SE wind flow moving across
Hispaniola.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N75W to 28N75W. A surface
trough is along 31N71W 28N76W, to the Florida east coast near
26N80W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally
strong within 90 nm on either side of 33N68W 28N73W 27N80W.

An upper level trough extends from a 28N64W cyclonic circulation
center, to 23N70W, to Jamaica, to 14N83W near the coast of NE
Nicaragua. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible
from 27N northward between 62W and 68W.

An upper level trough, whose southernmost point reaches 33N40W,
supports a cold front that 32N40W to 31N42W. A surface trough
extends from a 1017 mb low pressure center that is near 30N50W,
to 31N44W. A second surface trough extends from the 30N50W low
pressure center to 27N52W and 26N55W. Convective precipitation:
Isolated moderate from 28N to 30N between 44W and 50W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 28N to 33N between 40W
and 54W. Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of
28N50W 25N54W 24N60W.

An Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through 32N37W to
25N40W to 14N46W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 24N to 30N between 30W and 36W.
Isolated moderate from 23N to 24N between 40W and 42W.

An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center
that is about 460 nm to the north of the Canary Islands, to
14N20W, in the coastal waters of Senegal. Cyclonic wind flow
covers the area from 14N northward from 25W eastward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 24N
northward from 33W eastward. A 1025 mb high pressure center is
near 33N24W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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