[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-tropical cyclone Hermine is centered near 37.2N 68.5W,
about 282 nm SE of the eastern tip of Long Island. Hermine
continues to move slow NNE at 3 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 knots
with gusts to 75 knots. Scattered moderate convection and
isolated tstms are mainly to the N of Hermine center from 38N to
42N between 56W and 74W. Hermine should remain near hurricane
strength through Monday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by
Monday night. Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the
U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward
along the coast of southern New England through Monday night.
These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please read
the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central Atlc extending from 08N to
21N with axis near 35W, moving west at 10 kt within the last 24
hours. A 1013 mb low is associated with the wave and is located
near 20N36W, which is expected to move NW to 23N39W within the
next 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable deep layer
wind shear from 10N to 20N, however continuous intrusion of
Saharan dry air and dust in the wave environment is limiting
convection to scattered moderate in the NE quadrant of the low
from 22N to 27N between 32W and 37W. Isolated showers are
elsewhere within 370 nm E of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is entering the Caribbean Sea. The wave extends
from 10N to 19N with axis near 60W, moving W at 15 kt within the
last 24 hours. A 1010 mb center of low pressure is associated
with the wave, which is located near 15N60W, which is expected to
dissipate within the next 24 hours. Abundant moisture in the
vicinity of the wave along with a diffluent environment aloft
support a cluster of heavy showers and isolated tstms from 14N to
17N between 59W and 62W. A gale warning is in effect for the
Leeward Islands and adjacent waters through sunrise Monday.

A tropical wave is over the far western Caribbean extending from
08N to 20N with axis near 88W, moving at 20 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a favorable deep layer wind shear
environment that along with diffluent flow aloft support isolated
showers from 19N to 23N between 83W and 88W, including the Yucatan
Channel.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 16N16W to 10N35W to 11N49W. The ITCZ begins near
11N50W and continues to 14N59W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 04N to 09N between 18W and 27W and from 05N to 12N between
32W and 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the Gulf waters, except for
the SW basin where low level moisture convergence associated with
a surface trough extending from 22N90W to 18N93W support heavy
showers and tstms in the Bay of Campeche W of 92W. The ridge
provides gentle to moderate E to SE winds basin-wide except
across the eastern Bay of Campeche where moderate to fresh NE flow
is supported by the surface trough. Cloudiness and isolatedshowers are in the N-NE Gulf coast and adjacent waters associated
with the remnants of a former surface trough. A tropical wave
moving across the far W Caribbean support scattered showers in the
Yucatan Channel. Surface ridging will remain as the main feature
the next two days.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main concern for the basin is a vigorous tropical wave that
is moving across the central and northern Lesser Antilles. This
wave is supporting heavy showers and isolated tstms from 14N to
17N between 59W and 62W. A gale warning is in effect for the
Leeward Islands and adjacent waters through Monday sunrise. This
disturbance will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds over portions of the Lesser Antilles today, and should
spread over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola during the next day or two.
Another tropical wave is moving across the far western Caribbean
supporting scattered showers from 19N to 23N between 83W and 88W,
including the Yucatan Channel. Please refer to the tropical waves
section for details. The monsoon trough support scattered to
isolated showers in the SW basin within 150 nm off the coasts
from Nicaragua to Colombia. Fair weather is elsewhere. Fresh to
strong winds are in the Caribbean from 11N to 13N between 70W and
77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island due to strong subsidence
aloft as indicated by water vapor imagery. Stable and fair
weather is expected to continue tonight. On Monday and Tuesday,
a moist air mass associated with an approaching tropical wave
will support showers. Drier weather is expected by Thursday as
the wave moves away westward.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Post-tropical cyclone Hermine is N of forecast waters. Please
refer to the special features section for details. Two tropical
waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the tropical
waves section for details. A divergent environment aloft across
central Florida and adjacent waters support scattered showers and
isolated tstms from 27N to 29N extending within 120 nm off the
coast. A surface trough prevails in the SW N Atlc waters from
30N72W to 28N78W supporting isolated showers within 60 nm either
side of its axis. Another surface trough is on the northern
central Atlc from 30N47W to 27N52W with isolated showers within 30
nm either side of its axis. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by a weak and broad surface ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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