[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032357
TWDAT

TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-tropical cyclone Hermine is centered near 36.2N 73.3W at
03/2100 UTC or about 150 nm southeast of Ocean City, Maryland
and about 150 nm east-southeast of Norfolk, Virginia moving ENE
at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is present mainly E of the center from 34N
to 37N between 65W and 69W. Please see the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over the eastern Atlc has an axis extending from
22N30W to a 1012 mb low near 17N30W to 08N30W. The wave is
moving W at 10-15 kt. Convection in this wave N of 15N is being
inhibited by a dry layer of air containing African dust.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present E
of the wave axis from 11N to 14N between 25W and 29W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails on the S side of the wave from 05N
to 10N between 23W and 37W.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlc with an axis
extending from 20N54W to a 1009 mb low near 14N54W to 07N54W,
moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded in a broad area of
high TPW. Divergent upper-level winds are supporting numerous
moderate and isolated strong convection from 13N to 17N between
51W to 58W. Satellite-derived wind data show the pres gradient
on the N side of the wave is also generating a broad area of
fresh to strong NE to E winds from 13N to 20N between 45W and
60W.

A tropical wave extends from near Jamaica in the central
Caribbean into Panama with an axis extending from 17N78W to
08N78W. This feature remains embedded in an area of deep-layer
moisture, as noted in TPW imagery. Isolated moderate convection
is observed within 120 nm either side of the axis of the wave.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to the tropical wave near 12N30W to 10N40W
to the tropical wave near 12N54W to end just E of Trinidad and
Tobago near 11N59W. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical waves, little convection is observed in the
vicinity of the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the western Gulf of Mexico from
19N92W to 23N95W to 27N93W. Scattered moderate convection exists
near the trough from 21N to 26N between 92W and 99W. A small
thermal surface trough over the western portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula is enhancing convection over the SW portion of the
peninsula. To the E, a surface trough extends from 27N88W to the
Florida Big Bend at 30N84W to 30N82W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails near this trough from 24N to 31N between 84W
and 91W. Scatterometer data generally depicts light to moderate
E to SE winds over the basin. An upper-level trough will
continue to provide a favorable environment for deep convection
over the western Gulf during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please
refer to the tropical waves section for details. An upper-level
low is over the Caribbean S of the Dominican Republic near
17N67W. This feature is generally associated with convergent
upper-level winds. An upper-level trough over the far SW
Caribbean is sparking isolated convection over central America.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to locally fresh trade winds
across the basin, except in the vicinity of the monsoon trough S
of 12N over the SW Caribbean. The tropical wave over the
central/west Caribbean will continue moving W and usher in an
increase in the trades over the S central Caribbean. The next
tropical wave is already beginning to affect the eastern
Caribbean with showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong
easterly winds will accompany the northern portion of this wave.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time beneath a
region of convergent upper-level winds. A tropical wave will
bring increasing easterly winds across the island as well as
increased shower and thunderstorm coverage by Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Post-tropical cyclone Hermine is located of the E coast of the
United States near 36N73W. Please refer to the special features
section for details. Two tropical waves are moving across the
basin. Please refer to the tropical waves section for details.
Satellite-derived winds indicated strong to near gale-force SW
winds extended S from Hermine as far as 31N. To the W, a surface
trough extends from eastern Cuba at 20N76W to the central
Bahamas at 26N75W. There was little convection associated with
this feature. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the
basin. The ridge stretches between 1022 mb highs centered near
32N25W and 29N65W. Post-tropical cyclone Hermine will remain N
of the discussion area during the next 24 hours. However, fresh
to strong winds and large swell will continue to affect the NW
portion of the discussion area through the weekend. The tropical
waves will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms as they
move W across the central tropical Atlc through late Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

CAM
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