[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 PM EDT SUN OCT 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 11N61W to 16N59W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing and is embedded within
an area of deep moisture to the E of the Windward Islands. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 09N-15N between 56W-61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to
08N22W to 04N35W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 04N35W to 01N43W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from the Equator to 09N between 15W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A relatively narrow area of upper level troughing is noted on
water vapor imagery over the far NW Gulf with axis extending from
an upper level cyclone near 28N96W S-SW to an upper level cyclone
centered over the eastern Pacific waters near 17N102W. This
troughing aloft is inducing a weak surface trough analyzed across
the SW Gulf from 27N96W into a 1012 mb low centered near 21N94W.
Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring S of 24N
W of 93W in the vicinity of the boundary. E of the troughing...
S-SW flow aloft on the northwestern periphery of an upper level
anticyclonic circulation centered in the western Caribbean Sea is
providing for an overall diffluent environment over the remainder
of the basin. The diffluence along with a shear line analyzed from
the Florida Straits near 25N81W to 23N92W is supporting scattered
showers and widely scattered tstms from 23N-28N between 81W-93W.
Aside from convection...a relatively strong pressure gradient
exists between surface ridging anchored across the lower
Mississippi River valley and an area of low pressure across the NW
Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong E-NE winds are expected to continue
across the SE Gulf through the early part of the week...with
slightly weaker winds at moderate to fresh levels occurring
elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Southerly flow aloft prevails on the western periphery of an
upper level anticyclonic circulation centered over the western
Caribbean near 14N79W. Within this area...a 1011 mb surface low
is centered in the NW Caribbean near 18N84W. A surface trough
extends northwest from the low to the NE tip of the Yucatan
peninsula near 21N87W. Strong wind shear is present across the
area...however scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring
from 19N-22N between 84W-88W. Farther south...widely scattered
showers and tstms are occurring across the SW Caribbean S of 14N W
of 77W due to the close proximity of the Monsoon Trough extending
along 10N between northern Colombia and Costa Rica. Other
scattered showers and tstms are occurring across the Greater
Antilles due largely in part to peak daytime heating and the upper
level diffluent environment from the upper level ridging.
Finally...fresh to strong NE flow will develop in the lee of Cuba
as well as near and downwind of the Windward Passage by Tuesday.
Elsewhere...gentle to moderate trades are expected to persist
through the early part of the week.

...HISPANIOLA...
N-NW flow aloft prevails over the island this evening with
scattered showers and tstms occurring within the NE periphery of
an upper level anticyclonic circulation centered over the western
Caribbean Sea near 14N79W. The favorable upper level diffluent
pattern is expected to persist through the early part of the week
allowing for increased probability of persistent convection.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Upper level W-NW flow prevails aloft over much of the SW North
Atlc with a middle to upper level trough extending across the
northern portion from 32N48W to 28N58W. Dry and stable air
continues to fill in from NW of the troughing. A moist
environment is present south and east of this trough. A cold front
is supported by the trough extending from east of Bermuda near
32N59W to 29N70W to the Florida peninsula near 28N81W...with the
western portion expected to become diffuse overnight. An
elongated surface trough is located to the SW...extending from
32N50W to 28N53W to 27N63W into a 1010 mb surface low pressure
centered near 22N66W...continuing to the S-SW near the Mona
Passage. Active convection is present with scattered showers and
widely scattered tstms generally occurring within 240 nm either
side of a line from 30N41W to 20N70W. Across the eastern portion
of the basin...a surface trough extends from a 1014 mb low
pressure centered near 34N22W to 32N20W to 28N23W. Mainly gentle
to moderate trades will prevail E of 60W...outside of any areas
of deep convection. Meanwhile...the surface low near 22N66W is
forecast to remain nearly stationary with an area of fresh to
near gale force winds on the northern periphery persisting
through the early part of the week. A tight pressure gradient
between this low and ridging anchored across the SE CONUS will
maintain a relatively tight pressure gradient S of 27N W of 65W
supporting fresh to occasionally strong NE flow.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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