[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
758 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 08N to 18N between 48W and
59W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near
08N13W. The ITCZ continues from 08N13W to 07N20W 08N33W 06N38W
and 07N45W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 07N in
Liberia to 09N in Sierra Leone between 10W and 12W, and from 03N
to 06N between 13W and 23W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong elsewhere from 04N to 11N between 23W and 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow and high level moisture cover
the area from 86W westward. An upper level ridge is in the
western Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery from 86W eastward. Upper level NW
wind flow covers the rest of the area, on the western side of the
deep layer trough that moved through the area during the last few
days, and now that runs from the western Atlantic Ocean into the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to Florida: VFR/no ceilings.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the
east of the line that extends from Hispaniola into the SW corner
of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, that covers
the area that is from 15N southward between 67W and 75W, is
associated with an inverted trough. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 71W eastward.

Upper level NE wind flow covers the SW corner of the area, from
12N southward from 78W westward. The Monsoon Trough is along
08N/09N from 75W beyond 85W. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 13N southward between
81W and 85W, including in SE Nicaragua.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
23/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.41 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Convective
precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
rainshowers are in the area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: rain. FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona/Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago: MVFR.
Puerto Plata: thunder and rain.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows SW wind flow during all of
day one, and for the first half of day two. the second half of day
two will consist of cyclonic wind flow with a trough moving across
Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that the first
half of day one will consist of an inverted trough. The second
half of day one will consist of cyclonic wind flow with a trough
to the north of the area. Day two will consist of cyclonic wind
flow with a trough. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that
NE wind flow will move across the area during day one, with an
anticyclonic circulation center in between the SE Bahamas and
Hispaniola. Expect NE wind flow during day two, with a ridge
extending from a SE U.S.A. anticyclonic circulation center.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA,
INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, ABOUT 120 NM TO THE WEST
OF JAMAICA...

A deep layer trough passes through 32N69W to 27N72W, into the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, about 120 nm to the W of Jamaica.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, to the west of the line that passes through 32N61W 25N70W
23N74W 17N80W, to the border of eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua.
The drier air covers the Gulf of Mexico from 86W eastward. The
trough supports a cold front that passes through 32N61W to 27N66W
and 23N74W. The front becomes stationary from 23N74W, through
central Cuba, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface
trough is along 31N60W 23N67W 20N73W 16N77W, from the Atlantic
Ocean, across NW Hispaniola, into the Caribbean Sea. Convective
precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong within 125 nm on either side
of 32N58W 26N60W, and within 60 nm on either side of 26N60W 20N70W
16N79W. Rainshowers are possible in the Caribbean Sea from 16N
northward from 82W westward.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along 50W/52W from 10N to 28N. It is
possible that more than one cyclonic circulation center is
embedded in the trough. The trough is on top of the area that is
just to the east of the 53W/54W tropical wave. Convective
precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N to 22N between 38W
and 50W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N18W to 25N21W. The trough
supports the cold front that passes through Morocco near 32N05W
to 26N20W 25N26W 28N37W and 29N41W. Convective precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
are to the north of the line that passes through 32N06W, to 24N20W
23N30W 30N45W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N47W to 27N51W and 22N55W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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