[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171657
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1257 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Nicole is centered near 41.4N 44.6W at 17/1500 UTC or
about 485 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving NNE at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Widely scattered
moderate convection is within 210 nm of center. See latest
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 07N25W to 15N24W moving W at 10-15 kt.
A 1013 mb low is centered at the southern extend of the wave axis
and remains embedded within the Monsoon Trough axis. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 07N-14N between
19W-27W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
06N29W to 09N38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-07N
between 11W-16W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-08N
between 35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Water vapor imagery indicates dry air aloft as an upper level
trough axis extends over the Florida peninsula and portions of the
SW North Atlc leaving much of the Gulf under stable W-NW flow.
Mostly clear skies and overall fair conditions prevail as a
surface ridge axis extends from the across the Carolinas SW to the
SW Gulf near 22N96W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
continue and are expected to persist through Tuesday as they
increase slightly Tuesday night into Wednesday. The next cold
front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by
Thursday night into early Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level anticyclonic circulation is anchored over the
western Caribbean this afternoon near 13N79W. Mostly clear skies
and fair conditions are noted on satellite imagery E of 70W...
however W of 70W moisture and cloudiness increase as a diffluent
environment continues to generate scattered showers and isolated
strong tstms from 09N-18N between 75W-84W...including portions of
Panama and Costa Rica. Isolated showers and tstms are elsewhere
across portions of the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras region. Most of the strongest convection is focused along
a surface trough analyzed from the coast of central Cuba near
21N79W to 19N81W to 11N81W. Otherwise...outside of convective
areas...gentle to moderate trades are occurring and expected to
persist through this evening. Tonight into Tuesday...global
models are suggesting cyclogenesis to occur N of Hispaniola and
Puerto Rico resulting in a disruption of the usual trade wind
flow. In addition...as cyclogenesis occurs and moves generally
northward...lingering weak surface troughing will extend across
the Greater Antilles into the SW Caribbean through Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...
A shear line is analyzed to the north of the island along 22N.
This low-level boundary in tandem with an upper level trough
noted on water vapor imagery over the SW North Atlc is generating
scattered showers and tstms across northern portions of the
island and the adjacent coastal Atlc waters. The island is
expected to remain within an area of weak surface troughing
through Wednesday as cyclogenesis occurs across the SW North Atlc
waters overnight into Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the SW North Atlc and FLorida peninsula with a relatively
broad base reaching south to 23N between 74W-82W. The troughing
aloft is generating maximum diffluence to the east and inducing a
surface trough analyzed from 28N73W to 23N77W. A large area of
scattered showers and tstms is occurring from 19N-30N between
63W-75W. In addition...a shear line is analyzed from 21N55W to
the Turks and Caicos Islands near 21N72W providing further support
for the convection previously mentioned. Farther east...the
central Atlc is under the influence of a stationary front
extending from the circulation associated with Hurricane Nicole
well to the N of the discussion area. The front lies from 32N38W
SW to 22N47W to 21N72W where the shear line begins. Widely
scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 90 nm
either side of the front. Finally...across the eastern Atlc...a
middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery in
the vicinity of 31N16W. The troughing supports a 1012 mb low
centered W-SW of the Iberian peninsula near 37N16W with a cold
front extending SW from the low center to 32N19W the stationary
into a weak 1017 mb low centered near 31N23W. The frontal
troughing then extends to the SW with another surface trough
analyzed from 24N27W to 16N35W. Isolated showers are possible
within 45 nm either side of the surface trough boundary.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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