[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161639
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1239 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Nicole is centered near 39.1N 46.6W at 16/1500 UTC or
about 540 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving ESE at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm either side of a line from 44N43W to
39N47W to 35N55W. See latest Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
None.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
09N19W to 07N27W to 09N38W to 09N43W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-09N between 12W-17W...and from 03N-09N
between 20W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Water vapor imagery indicates dry air aloft as an upper level
trough axis extends over the far NE Gulf waters and northern
Florida. The mid-level shortwave energy remains focused over the
NE Gulf waters supporting a few isolated showers and tstms N of
26N between 83W-86W. Farther southwest...a weak 1012 mb low is
centered near 20N95W with a surface trough extending N-NW along
the Mexico coast to 23N98W. Low-level moisture convergence in the
vicinity of the surface trough is generating widely scattered
showers and isolated tstms from 19N-22N between 94W-97W.
Otherwise...mainly moderate easterly winds prevail as surface
ridging remains anchored across the SE CONUS. Little change is
expected through Thursday as the next cold front is expected to
emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by Thursday night into
early Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level anticyclonic circulation is anchored over the
western Caribbean this afternoon near 14N80W. Mostly clear skies
and fair conditions are noted on satellite imagery E of 72W...
however W of 72W moisture and cloudiness increase as a diffluent
environment continues to generate scattered showers and tstms from
07N-18N between 73W-84W...including much of Panama and portions of
the remainder of Central America. Isolated showers and tstms are
elsewhere across portions of the NW Caribbean. Otherwise...outside
of convective areas...gentle to moderate trades are occurring and
expected to persist through Monday. On Monday into Tuesday...global
models are suggesting cyclogenesis to occur N of Hispaniola and
Puerto Rico resulting in a disruption of the usual trade wind
flow. In addition...as cyclogenesis occurs and moves generally
northward...lingering weak surface troughing will extend across
the Greater Antilles into the SW Caribbean through Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly clear skies and fair conditions are currently observed
across the island this afternoon. A few isolated showers are noted
across the SW portion of the island and in the southern adjacent
coastal waters...however skies overall are expected to remain
under mostly stable conditions as NW flow prevails.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is progressing eastward currently
noted on water vapor imagery over the Carolinas stretching an axis
S-SW to a base over the central Florida peninsula. The troughing
aloft is generating maximum diffluence to the east over much of
the SW North Atlc waters between 70W-80W where scattered showers
and isolated tstms are occurring on the southern periphery of a
surface ridge anchored across the Delmarva and the Carolinas. In
addition...a shear line is analyzed from 22N66W to the central
Bahamas near 24N76W to 23N81W. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms are occurring within 150 nm either side of the shear line.
Farther east...the central Atlc is under the influence of a cold
front extending from the circulation associated with Hurricane
Nicole well to the N of the discussion area. The front lies from
32N41W SW to 23N50W to 22N66W where the shear line begins.
Isolated showers and tstms are occurring within 60 nm either side
of the cold front. Finally...across the eastern Atlc...a middle
to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery in the
vicinity of 29N22W. The troughing supports a 1004 mb low centered
near 36N18W with a surface trough extending SW from the low
center to 30N24W to 22N37W. Another surface trough extends from
22N30W to 14N40W. Given the favorable upper level dynamics...
isolated showers are occurring N of 22N E of 23W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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