[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Nicole at 16/0300 UTC is near 39.4N
48.3W. Nicole is moving toward the E, or 80 degrees, 9 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 75 knots with gusts to 90 knots.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 37N to
43N between 45W and 54W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate
Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
and the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18N52W 13N54W 08N55W
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 120 nm to 180 nm on either
side of the wave.

A surface trough is along 17N58W 12N60W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N to 20N between 54W and
60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near
09N17W, to 08N27W, 09N37W, and 09N41W. The ITCZ continues from
09N41W to 09N49W, and 10N52W. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters within 250 NM
to the south of the Monsoon trough/ITCZ between 09W and 47W, and
within 180 NM to the north of the Monsoon trough between 16W and
22W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is moving through the area from the
Florida Panhandle/the Florida Big Bend, into the north central
Gulf of Mexico, and beyond NE coastal Mexico. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery on
the northern side of the trough. A surface trough is along
92W/93W from 23N southward, in the SW corner of the area.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate across the area.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  KATP.

MVFR: KSPR and KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Jasper. LOUISIANA: VFR/no ceilings. MISSISSIPPI:
MVFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: light
rain in Marianna. MVFR in Apalachicola and in Marathon Key.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is along 81W/82W from Panama near 09N to
13N in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is
along the coast of Central America, from eastern sections of
Honduras to southern Nicaragua. Convective precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong in Colombia from 06N to 11N between
73W and 77W, and from 17N southward between 78W and 84W.
isolated moderate elsewhere from 17N northward from 65W westward.

An upper level ridge extends from the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia
northwestward, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.41 in Curacao,
0.04 in Bermuda, and 0.02 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N between 74W in Colombia, and
west NW Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong in Colombia from 06N to 11N between 73W and 77W,

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. Convective
precipitation: Isolated moderate rom 17N northward from 65W
westward.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona:
VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR/no
ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds and earlier rain and thunder.
La Romana: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. Punta Cana:
VFR/no ceilings. Santiago: VFR/no ceilings. Puerto Plata: VFR/no
ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level central Atlantic Ocean trough supports a frontal
trough that passes through 32N40W to 22N60W to the NW Bahamas.
A shear line is present from 61W westward. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate within 60 nm to 90 nm on either
side of the frontal trough.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT
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