[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151115
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Nicole at 15/0900 UTC is near 38.1N
51.6W. Nicole is moving toward the ENE, or 65 degrees, 15 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots.
Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 40N
to 42N between 50W and 52W. Please read the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W from 17N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The position for the 15/0600 UTC
surface map has been relocated, as compared to the 15/0000 UTC
map analysis, based on current satellite imagery and NHC/TAFB
wave diagnostics. Convective precipitation: no significant deep
convective precipitation is able to be attributed directly to
just the tropical wave. it is possible that some nearby
precipitation may be associated with the ITCZ.

A surface trough is along 58W from 11N to 17N. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 12N to 17N between 57W and
60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of SW Senegal
and NW Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W, to 10N20W, 08N27W and 07N34W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N34W to 06N36W, 09N43W, and from 11N48W
to 10N54W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong within 250
NM to the SE of the Monsoon trough between 23W and 28W, and
within 85 NM and 190 NM to the N of the Monsoon trough between
32W and 35W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from
03N to the Monsoon trough between 05W and 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is moving through southern Louisiana and
parts of SW Mississippi, the NW part of the Gulf of Mexico, and
through NE coastal Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
is apparent in water vapor imagery near the trough. A surface
trough is along 95W/96W from 25N southward. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate from 23N to 25N between
95W and 97W.

Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A shear axis reaches the coast
of Cuba near 23N80W from the Bahamas, to 23N86W, and 20N93W in
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 25N
southward. Part of the upper level cyclonic wind flow that is
moving around the 22N82W NW Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation
center is in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: KEIR.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Weslaco, in Lake Conroeand in Beaumont/Port
Arthur. The visibilities have improved during the last few
observations in Bay City and in Angleton/Lake Jackson.
LOUISIANA: MVFR in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area,
and in New Iberia. rainshowers in the Fourchon area. MVFR in
Grand Isle. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR at the public airport in McComb.
MVFR in Gulfport. IFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: VFR/no
ceilings. FLORIDA: IFR in Perry.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N82W, in
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the area from 16N northward from SE Cuba and eastern
Jamaica westward. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to
locally strong from 19N northward from 78W westward, and
elsewhere from 17N southward from 75W westward. A surface trough
is along 80W from 14N to 22N, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.

An upper level trough is along 17N64W to 22N64W in the Atlantic
Ocean. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
17N to 23N between 65W and 70W in parts of the Caribbean Sea and
in parts of the Atlantic Ocean.

The 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.09 in Curacao.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 75W and west central
Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 12N southward from 76W westward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across the
area. An upper level ridge is on top of Hispaniola. Convective
precipitation: Rainshowers are possible in the Windward Passage,
and elsewhere from 17N northward between 70W and 80W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Santo
Domingo: VFR/no ceilings. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago
and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that day one will
consist of a ridge across the area, eventually becoming W wind
flow. Expect NW wind flow for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 500 MB shows that day one will start with SE wind flow, and
then eventually anticyclonic wind flow will span the area by the
end of day one. Expect broad anticyclonic wind flow for the rest
of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB show that E wind
flow will move across Hispaniola during day one. Broad
anticyclonic wind flow will cover Hispaniola during the first
18 hours or so of day two, ending with SW wind flow.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 26N
northward between 49W and 70W, associated with a trough.
A surface trough passes through 32N50W 27N55W 25N65W, becoming a
shear axis and continuing from 25N65W 25N74W, across the
Bahamas, to the coast of Cuba near 23N80W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate within 60 nm to 90 nm on either
side of the line that passes through 32N47W 24N60W 23N70W, and
from 20N to 27N between 70W and 80W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 16N56W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 10N to 20N
between 50W and 63W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
from 07N to 20N between 48W and 60W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Eastern Atlantic Ocean
between 24W and 37W from 10N northward, with a trough.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong within 270 nm on either side of the line 17N37W to 24N27W
beyond 32N25W.

A surface 1015 mb high pressure center is near 23N49W. A surface
1014 mb high pressure center is near 25N24W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT
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