[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Nicole is centered near 35.8N 58.0W at 14/1500 UTC or
690 nm SSW of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving east-northeast at 16 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is north of 38N between 51W-60W. Nicole could become a
post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Swells associated with Nicole
will continue to affect Bermuda and the United States east coast
from the Carolinas northward for the next couple of days. Swells
from Nicole will begin to affect the coastline of Atlantic Canada
today and continue into the weekend. These swells will create
dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. See the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 07N to
16N with axis near 46W, moving W at 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave continues in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind
shear. In addition, dry air is in the wave environment as noted in
both Meteosat enhanced imagery and CIRA LPW imagery from the
surface to 850 mb. Isolated showers are from 06N to 10N between
44W and 49W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N16W to 07N25W to 07N35W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 04N-10N E of 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge is over the eastern U.S. anchored by a 1032
mb high in the region of New England near 42N77W. This surface
ridge extends an axis SW across the Gulf of Mexico, thus
providing stable weather conditions along with subsidence of very
dry air as noted in both water vapor imagery and CIRA LPW imagery.
A shear line extends from the northern Bahamas SW across the
Florida straits SW to the northern Yucatan Peninsula near 21N88W.
Scattered to isolated showers and tstms are within 90 nm either
side of this feature in the SE basin. A weak surface trough is
along E Mexico coastal waters from 24N96W to the Bay of Campeche
near 19N95W. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NE to E winds cover the
basin and are expected through Saturday morning. Winds will veer
E-SE afterwards as the center of high pressure shift E-NE to over NW
Atlantic waters. No major changes expected during the weekend. The
next cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana
coasts by late next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

West to southwest flow aloft covers most of the basin in the upper
levels with the water vapor imagery showing strong dry air
subsidence in the NW portion of the basin, thus supporting fair
weather in that region. A surface trough is over Nicaragua and
Costa Rica coastal waters from 16N82W to 10N83W. This feature is
in a region of abundant low level moisture that support isolated
to scattered showers within 120 nm either side of its axis.
Farther to the east, there is a middle level region of diffluent
flow that support scattered heavy showers and tstms from 10N-20N
between 73W and 80W. Isolated showers are noted over SE Dominican
Republic coastal waters, Puerto Rico and within 90 nm off the
coast of Venezuela. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades prevail
and are expected to persist through Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper level shortwave trough extending from adjacent eastern waters
of the central Bahamas to a base near NE Puerto Rico along with
abundant moisture in the N-NE Caribbean support isolated showers
across the eastern Dominican Republic and adjacent waters. Fair
weather prevails across the remainder Island. Showers are expected
to continue today and Sunday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The primary concern in the basin continues to be Hurricane
Nicole that is N of forecast waters. See the Special Features
above for details. A shearline extends across the northern Bahamas
near 27N74W to northern Cuba near 23N81W SW to the northern
Yucatan Peninsula. A surface trough is ahead of this feature
extending from 26N62W to 24N70W to 21N77W. Scattered showers are
between the shearline and the trough in the Grand Bahama Bank
region. A surface trough is in the central tropical Atlantic just
east of the Lesser Antilles extending from 20N55W to 10N57W,
however no convection is associated with it. Otherwise, surface
ridging dominates elsewhere across the central and east Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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