[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Nicole is centered near 33.3N 63.8W at 13/1800 UTC or
about 80 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 16 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 962 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt
with gusts to 125 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 30N-36N between 59W-66W. The center of Nicole
will move away from Bermuda this afternoon. A dangerous storm
surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 8 feet above
normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Nicole is expected to produce total
rain accumulations of 5 to 8 inches over Bermuda through this
evening. Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during
the next few days, and will spread northward along the United
States east coast from the Carolinas northward through the next
few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and
rip currents. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 08N to
19N with axis near 38W, moving W at 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave continues in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind
shear and dry air intrusion is observed in the wave environment in
Meteosat enhanced imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from
14N to 20N between 30W and 40W.

Tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean just E of Puerto Rico extending
from 06N to 18N with axis near 66W, moving W at 20 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave is in a region of neutral to unfavorable deep
layer wind shear. Shallow moisture in the wave environment allows
for isolated showers within 90 nm either side of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
07N20W to 11N33W to 08N47W. Widely scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 05N-09N between 15W-26W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 10N-12N between 39W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Water vapor imagery indicate dry air and subsidence aloft due in
large part to a NW flow regime over the basin. This is resulting
in overall stable conditions at the surface as broad high
pressure over the central U.S. anchored near Missouri extends S
to the central Gulf. The latest scatterometer data...ship and
buoy observations indicate moderate to fresh NE to E winds which
are expected through Saturday. By Saturday...the ridge N of the
forecast waters will shift E-NE to the area of New England and
winds will veer E-SE, however remaining in the gentle to moderate
breeze range for the remainder of the weekend. Looking ahead...the
next cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana
coasts by late next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low is centered over the Windward Passage. Dry
N-NW flow aloft prevails W of this low providing overall fair
skies in the NW Caribbean with the exception of a few isolated
showers occurring within 120 nm of a 1013 mb low centered near
18N84W. Scattered showers and tstms are across the central basin
from 12N to 19N between 73W and 80W being enhanced by the upper
level low and a middle level inverted trough. Other region of scattered
showers and tstms is S of 13N between 76W-84W due to the close
proximity of the EPAC Monsoon Trough axis that extends from Costa
Rica to Colombia. In the E Caribbean, a tropical wave with axis
near 66W support isolated showers in the SE basin. See tropical
waves for further details. Otherwise...gentle to moderate trades
prevail and are expected to persist through Saturday. The low in
the NW Caribbean will dissipate by early Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers continue across the island being supported by an
upper level low centered over the Windward Passage. Showers will
continue today and will increase across the Island Friday as a
tropical wave moves across the central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of the influence of Hurricane Nicole, surface ridging
extends from the SE CONUS to the central Bahamas behind a surface
trough that extends from 24N71W to 21N77W enhancing showers across
the Grand Bahama Bank. Primarily moderate to fresh NE winds are
occurring across the SW North Atlc waters. Farther east across
the central and eastern Atlc, a cutoff middle to upper level low
is noted on water vapor imagery near 30N35W that supports a 1015 mb
low centered near 29N40W. Widely scattered showers and isolated
tstms are occurring to the E-SE of the low from 25N-31N between
31W-36W. Surface ridging dominates elsewhere in the central and NE
forecast waters.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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