[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102335
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
735 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 10/2100 UTC, Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 26.3N
65.4W or about 361 nm south of Bermuda, moving north at 5 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Slow strengthening is expected to
begin by tonight, and Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane on
Tuesday. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-29N between
56W-67W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located across the central Atlantic with axis
extending from 15N46W to 07N47W, moving west at 15 kt. This
feature shows up well as a low amplitude moisture surge on Total
Precipitable Water imagery and satellite derived winds. Scattered
moderate convection is observed in the wave's environment from
06N-12N between 37W-57W. This wave will be near the Lesser
Antilles by Wednesday night.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean with axis
extending from 16N69W to 08N70W moving, west at 15-20 kt. The
wave coincides with abundant low-level moisture as noted on Total
Precipitable Water imagery. An Ascat pass indicates the wind shift
associated with the wave axis. A large area of showers and
thunderstorms prevails across the southern portion of the wave
currently located over Venezuela, south of 12N between 68W-71W.
This wave is expected to reach the central Caribbean on Tuesday
and the western Caribbean by Thursday.

Another tropical wave is over the Caribbean Sea with axis that
extends from 16N78W to a 1011 mb low near 13N79W to 08N79W, moving
west at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing
between 75W-85W...and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity
along the wave axis near 13N. Scattered moderate convection
prevails along the wave mainly near the low center. These features
are forecast to move into Central America by Tuesday night.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
08N30W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N30W to
11N46W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave
along 47W, scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between
18W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the southwest Gulf waters from
25N93W to 20N93W. Isolated showers are observed near the trough
between 90W-95W. A shortwave trough aloft is moving over the
Yucatan Peninsula enhancing scattered showers mainly south of 24N
between 86W-90W. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of
the basin as a surface ridge extends across the area.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds
across the basin. Little change is expected through the next 24
hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As previously mentioned, a pair of tropical waves are moving
westward across the Caribbean Sea. Please, see the Tropical Waves
section above for details. The western portion of the basin is
under the influence of a surface ridge that extends from the Gulf
of Mexico to west of 74W. Cloudiness and convection is observed
across the northeastern Caribbean enhanced by T.S Nicole which
continues centered over the western Atlantic just north of Puerto
Rico. At this time, scattered showers prevail over the Lesser
Antilles and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Expect during the next
24 hours for the waves to continue moving west. Convection in the
northeast Caribbean will continue as Nicole moves slowly
northward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Moisture is forecast to increase across the islands as a trough
extending from T.S. Nicole remains just to the north of the area.
This will favor scattered showers and thunderstorms during the
next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

T.S. Nicole is centered over the west Atlantic waters. Please,
see the Special Features section above for details. A cold front
is analyzed from 24N69W to 32N67W. No significant convection is
related to this front at this time. Another frontal system extends
across the central Atlantic, analyzed as a stationary front from
31N53W to 26N48W, then as a cold front from that point to 24N39W
to 32N29W. These fronts are associated to a 1012 mb low pressure
situated near 32N32W. Scattered showers are observed near the
cold front mainly north of 25N between 28W-37W. A surface ridge
extends across the remainder of the basin. Expect for Nicole to
moving northward. The tropical waves will continue moving west
with convection. The low in the central Atlantic will move
southwest reaching 30N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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