[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 24.4N 65.3W at 10/0300 UTC
or about 475 nm S of Bermuda moving N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt
with gusts to 65 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
18N-27N between 58W-68W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 05N47W to 16N45W moving W at 15-20 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 40W-48W
and remains beneath southwesterly upper level flow. As a result...
only isolated moderate convection is from 11N-13N between 43W-48W.

Tropical wave extends from 09N63W to 18N61W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 58W-64W and
abundant low-level moisture as noted on Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-19N between
57W-62W.

Tropical wave extends from 10N76W to 19N75W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing over the central
Caribbean Sea between 70W-80W...and a maximum in 850 mb relative
vorticity along the wave axis near 14N. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 05N-15N between 72W-78W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 16N17W to
06N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N23W to 06N33W to 04N39W to 05N45W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 04N-12N between 12W-18W...and
from 03N-10N between 34W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
As of 10/0300 UTC...a surface trough is analyzed across the
central Gulf near 26N89W into the SW Gulf near 21N94W
highlighting the remnants of an old frontal boundary which has
weakened into a low-level convergence boundary with isolated
showers focused within 90 nm either side. The troughing also
indicates the broad cyclonic winds across the basin primarily
gentle to moderate E-NE winds as surface ridging builds in across
the eastern CONUS and extends across much of the basin. The
surface trough is expected to drift westward through late Tuesday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Upper level anticyclonic flow covers much of the Caribbean W of
70W this evening stemming from a ridge anchored over the SW North
Atlc near 27N74W. With a tropical wave along 76W...scattered
showers and tstms are focused in the vicinity of the wave and
across northern Colombia...due also in part to the close proximity
of the Monsoon Trough axis. Other scattered showers and strong
tstms are occurring across portions of Central America from 10N-
17N between 82W-90W. Farther east...an upper level low is
centered over the Windward Islands near 13N62W providing support
for scattered showers and tstms S of 15N between 57W-62W. This
convection is located on the eastern convergent side of a tropical
wave along 62W. Otherwise...outside of the influence of the
tropical waves...mainly moderate trades prevail and are expected
to persist through Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers are occurring across the island this evening as
Tropical Storm Nicole remains centered well N-NE across the SW
North Atlc waters. Convection is expected to continue as upper
level ridging and NE flow aloft remain over the island through
Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level trough moving off the
New England coast with a mid-level shortwave in the vicinity of
37N68W. With the remnant surface low of Matthew analyzed as a 992
mb low centered off the Delmarva near 36N70W...the associated cold
front is analyzed into the discussion area near 32N69W extending
S-SW to the central Bahamas near 24N75W. Isolated showers are
possible within 120 nm E of the front. To the SE of the front...
Tropical Storm Nicole continues drifting N and covers a large
portion of the SW North Atlc region with cloudiness and ongoing
convection. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 17N-28N
between 54W-68W. Farther east...an upper level low is noted on
water vapor imagery near 32N33W that supports a cold front
analyzed from 32N30W to 27N40W to 28N46W then becomes stationary
to 32N53W. Widely scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of
27N within 120 nm SE of the front...while isolated showers are
elsewhere within 120 nm either side of the front W of 34W.
Finally...the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface
ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 32N18W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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