[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Matthew is centered near 34.8N 75.8W at 09/0600 UTC or
about 25 nm SSW of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and about 40 nm E
of Morehead City North Carolina moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate convection is from
35N-41N between 70W-79W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the
full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 24.4N 65.7W at 09/0300 UTC
or about 475 nm S of Bermuda moving S at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 20N-25N between 61W-68W. See the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 07N40W to 16N37W moving W at 15-20 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 35W-42W
and remains beneath westerly upper level flow. As a result...no
significant convection is occurring with the wave at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 07N55W to 17N51W moving W at 15-20 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 48W-57W and
abundant low-level moisture as noted on Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-17N between
48W-55W.

Tropical wave extends from 12N71W to 19N68W moving W at 15 kt. The
wave coincides with 700 mb troughing over the central Caribbean
Seas between 66W-73W...and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity
along the wave axis near 15N. No significant convection is
occurring with the wave at this time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to
11N23W, The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
11N23W to 11N36W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
04N-11N between 08W-20W. Isolated moderate convection is from
07N-09N between 26W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor
imagery over the Carolinas and adjacent coastal SW North Atlc
waters supporting a cold front extending from the Florida
panhandle S-SW to 27N87W then SW to the Mexico coast near Tampico.
Mostly dry air and subsidence remain aloft over the eastern Gulf
waters...however moisture increases across the far western Gulf
waters and east-central Mexico. This moisture along with the
presence of the cold front are generating isolated showers and
tstms from 21N-23N between 89W-98W. Otherwise...the remainder of
the basin N of the front is under mostly clear skies and fair
conditions with fresh to occasional strong NE winds that are
expected to persist through Sunday night. The front is forecast to
move east of the Gulf by Monday as surface ridging holds across
much of the eastern CONUS providing moderate to fresh E-NE winds
Monday into Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Upper level anticyclonic flow covers much of the Caribbean this
evening stemming from a ridge anchored over the SW North Atlc near
27N73W. Convective debris cloudiness continues to move S-SW over
the basin between 64W-72W due to the convection associated with
Tropical Storm Nicole centered well N of Puerto Rico this evening.
Some embedded widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are
occurring N of 16N between 64W-70W. In addition...a tropical wave
along 70W is providing favorable dynamic lift to support this
convection. Farther west...an upper level low is centered over
southern Guatemala providing support for scattered showers and
tstms S of 17N W of 80W...including interior portions of Central
America. Otherwise...outside of the influence of the tropical
wave...mainly moderate trades prevail E of the wave axis and
gentle to moderate E-NE winds prevail W of the wave axis. The next
tropical wave...currently along 53W...is forecast to reach the
Lesser Antilles by Sunday night into early Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the island this
evening as Tropical Storm Nicole remains centered well N-NE
across the SW North Atlc waters. Convection is expected to
continue as upper level ridging and NE flow aloft remain over the
island in addition to a tropical wave moving west through Sunday
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Between Hurricane Matthew and Tropical Storm Nicole...the SW North
Atlc is under the influence of an upper level anticyclonic
circulation centered near 27N73W. Mostly middle to upper level
moisture and cloudiness is noted on satellite imagery this evening
in the vicinity of the ridge...however a few low-topped isolated
showers are possible N of 27N between 72W-79W as Matthew continues
to move E-NE. Much of the moisture and cloudiness associated with
Tropical Storm Nicole remains to the east and south of the storm
center providing widely scattered showers and isolated tstms
generally from 18N-27N between 52W-63W...and from 18N-24N between
63W-70W. Farther NE...an upper level low is noted on water vapor
imagery near 37N38W that supports a cold front analyzed from
32N39W to 31N47W then becomes stationary to 32N56W. Widely
scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 30N within 150 nm
E of the front...while isolated showers are elsewhere N of 27N
between 40W-55W generally S of the front. Finally...the eastern
Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb
high centered near 31N22W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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