[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Matthew is centered near 15.4N 74.9W at 03/1200
UTC or about 243 nm SW of Port au Prince Haiti and about 191 nm
SE of Kingston Jamaica moving N at 5 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 943 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115
kt with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 13N
to 16N between 73W and 76W. Similar convection along with tstms
is observed from 13N to 18N between 70W and 73W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 11N to 19N between 69W and
78W. The center of Matthew will approach Jamaica and
southwestern Haiti tonight, and eastern Cuba on Tuesday. Heavy
rainfall, life-threatening flash flooding, mud slides, dangerous
storm surge and large destructive waves are expected. See latest
NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 09N to
17N with an associated 1010 mb low centered near 11N42W. Both the
wave axis and the low center has been moving W at 10 kt over the
past 24 hours. Upper level diffluence and abundant low level
moisture in the wave environment as seen in CIRA LPW support
scattered showers within 120 nm either side of its axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N13W to
05N20W to 06N37W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical wave, a cluster of heavy showers and tstms is from 13N
to 17N between 28W and 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layered trough extends from the Lower Great Lakes SW across
the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valley, S across the central Gulf
to a base over Guatemala. The trough aloft has weaken, thus the
stationary front that it supported across the Gulf has started to
dissipate along 29N83W to 27N90W where a surface trough trails to
26N95W. Diffluent flow generated by the trough aloft and broad
upper ridging covering the Caribbean support scattered showers and
tstms in the SE basin ahead of the frontal boundary, including the
Florida Straits and the Yucatan Channel. Similar convection is
within 120 nm N of the front E of 90W. The front is expected to
gradually become diffuse today with gentle to occasional moderate
E-SE winds expected as ridging builds southwestward across the
western Gulf tonight and Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main concern in the basin is major Hurricane Matthew located
in the central Caribbean. An upper level ridge covers much of the
Caribbean E of 83W while an upper level trough axis extends across
the central Gulf to a base over Guatemala. Diffluent flow between
these two upper features support scattered to isolated showers
and tstms W of 80W. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach
Jamaica and Haiti tonight, and eastern Cuba Tuesday. Matthew is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches
across southern Haiti and the southwestern portion of the
Dominican Republic, with possible isolated amounts of 40 inches.
Across eastern Cuba and western Haiti, total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches are expected with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 20 inches. Across eastern Jamaica, total rainfall of 5 to 10
inches is expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
possible. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides. See the special features section for
details. GOES Quantitative Precipitation Estimate show rainfall
accumulations of up to one inch in Jamaica over the past 6 hours.
Otherwise as Matthew tracks northward the next few days...the
trades will continue to be disrupted through Tuesday night into
Wednesday when Matthew is expected to be centered north of eastern
Cuba in the SW North Atlc region. Trades will begin re-establish
from east to west thereafter through the second half of next week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered to heavy showers associated with the outer bands of
major Hurricane Matthew are already moving across SW Dominican
Republic and Haiti. The center of Matthew is expected to reach
the SW tip of Haiti by early Tuesday morning bringing strong
winds, heavy rainfall, life-threatening flash flooding, mud
slides, dangerous storm surge and large destructive waves. Matthew
is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches
across southern Haiti and the southwestern portion of the
Dominican Republic, with possible isolated amounts of 40 inches.
Across western Haiti, total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches
are expected with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. See
the special features section for further details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluent wind flow generated by the upper trough across the Gulf
of Mexico and the broad ridge covering the Caribbean and the
southern Bahamas support scattered showers and tstms N of 23N W
of 74W. The north-central Atlc is under the influence of a surface
ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 27N42W. The other
important feature in the Atlc is a 1011 mb low centered near
22N56W. The low is supported aloft by a middle level low centered
near 20N59W. Scattered showers are occurring within 120 nm of the
low center. Otherwise, as Matthew tracks northward across the
central Caribbean, the weak ridging in place will shift east with
Matthew moving into the SW North Atlc region by early Wednesday
morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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