[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 13.5N 73.4W at 01/2100 UTC or
about 313 nm south-southwest of Port Au Prince Haiti moving
northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt.
Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. Numerous strong convection prevails south of 17N
between 67W-76W. Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are expected across Jamaica
and southern and southwestern Haiti over the next three to four
days. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 20N37W to a 1010 mb low near 12N37W, moving west at 15-20 kt
over the past 24 hours. The wave is in a moist region as depicted
in the TPW imagery, however, Saharan dry air and dust is over the
northern portion of the wave inhibiting significant convection
north of 12N. Scattered showers are observed in the vicinity of
the low mostly related the Monsoon Trough axis that extends to the
east of the low along 12N.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending its axis
25N56W to 15N56W, moving west at 10-15 kt over the past 24 hours.
A 1010 mb surface low was left behind the wave and is centered
near 18N53W. An upper-level low is centered to the east of the
wave supporting scattered showers from 20N-23N between 47W-56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 10N14W to 08N24W to the 1010 mb
low and wave near 12N37W. Scattered moderate convection is north of
the Monsoon Trough from 11N-15N between 21W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the basin from 20N96W to 25N89W
to 27N83W. Isolated showers prevail along and south of this
front affecting the southeast waters. Scatterometer data depicts 10-15
kt northerly winds north of the front, while 5-10 kt southerly
winds are S of the front. At upper levels; northerly flow prevails
across the western half of the basin while a trough covers the
eastern Gulf east of 90W. Expect the front to gradually become
diffuse Sunday with light E-NE surface winds to follow due to
ridging.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main concern in the basin is Hurricane Matthew located in the
south-central Caribbean. Please refer to the Special Features
section above for details. Aside from that, isolated showers
prevail across the far west Caribbean west of 83W supported by an
upper-level low centered over the Yucatan Channel. The far
northeast periphery of Matthew is enhancing cloudiness and
convection across portions of Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.
Expect for Matthew to move slowly west tonight then shift to a
mostly northerly track over the next three to four days.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection prevails across the island due to
Hurricane Matthew along with high surf in the southern coast of
Hispaniola. Matthew is expected to move closer to Haiti over the
next several days. For more information about this system, please
refer to the section above.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. A stationary front extends over
the western Atlantic from 29N81W to 32N81W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed southeast of the front affecting the
Bahamas and waters between 71W-80W. The remainder of the basin is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high
centered near 28N36W. Expect for the tropical waves to continue
moving west during the next 24 hours. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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