[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
657 PM EST WED NOV 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf of Mexico. The
pressure gradient between the front and the surface high building
behind it is generating northwest strong to gale-force winds
south of 25N west of the front with seas to 10 ft. These winds are
expected to diminish on Thursday morning. Please refer to the
High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow
the forecast that is valid until 01/1200 UTC, consists of: the
persistence or threat of a SE near gale to locally severe
gale in IRVING and MADEIRA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa not reaching the Atlantic
waters. The ITCZ was analyzed from 08N13W to 08N29W to a 1009 mb
low near 08N43W to 07N50W. Scattered moderate convection is 06N-
09N between 20W-30W and around the low center between 40W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf from 23N98W to
29N91W. A shear line is ahead of the front extending from 23N96W
to 30N88W. Strong northerly winds are depicted north of the cold
front, while gale force winds are currently occurring across the
Bay of Campeche. Please refer to the section above for details.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate southerly winds
across the remainder of the basin. A surface ridge centered over
the west Atlantic extends across the eastern Gulf. Expect for the
cold front to continue moving across the basin enhancing
winds/seas/convection. Gale-force winds will diminish by early
Thursday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid-level low is centered across the eastern Caribbean supporting
a surface trough that extends from 11N66W to 19N65W. A shortwave
trough extends across the Lesser Antilles supporting convection
east of 65W. In the southwest portion of the basin, the Monsoon
Trough extends along 10N between 75W-81W with scattered moderate
convection affecting portions of Panama and Costa Rica. An upper-
level anticyclone prevails across the remainder of the basin with
fair weather. Expect for the surface trough to continue near
Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle to upper-level ridging along with strong dry air
subsidence from aloft support fair weather across the Island. Fair
weather is forecast today but a moist airmass will move across the
region Thursday through Friday, increasing the chance of showers
for the Dominican Republic for the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge prevails across the western Atlantic anchored by a
1024 mb high centered near 33N61W. To the east, a weakening cold
front extends from 26N46W to 31N36W. A surface trough extends east
of the front from 22N38W to 30N34W. A diffluent flow aloft is
supporting an area of scattered showers to the east of the trough
and front between 20W-33W. A 1017 mb surface high is centered near
26N18W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the fronts to weaken.
The next cold front will enter the western Atlantic by late
Thursday.

Of note: Today marks end of the hurricane seasons across the
Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific. 15 named storms
developed in the Atlantic basin this year, from which 7 were
hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. 5 of these named storms made
landfall in the United States, while 4 made landfall outside of
the United States. Matthew was the strongest and longest lived
storm of the season, which reached sustained surface winds of 140
kt and lasted as a major hurricane for 8 days. This system became
a major hurricane over the Caribbean Sea, making landfall as a
category 4 in Haiti, Cuba and Bahamas. Matthew later made landfall
as a category one in South Carolina. Otto was another system for
the records. It developed in the southern Caribbean becoming a
category 2 before making landfall over Nicaragua. Otto quickly
weakened after making landfall over Central America, then moved
over the Eastern Pacific basin as a tropical storm.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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