[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 AM EST WED NOV 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The 24-hour forecast consists of a cold front: 30N86W 22N95W 19N95W.
Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights reaching 10 feet,
to the S of 24N to the W of the cold front. Please refer to the
High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W, to 05N27W, to a
1011 mb low pressure center that is near 08N42W. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong within a 30 nm to 45 nm radius of
08N41.5W, near the 1011 mb low pressure center. widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from 11N southward between
17W and 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is in the central U.S.A. Upper level SW and
anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary
front is along the Texas coast, being supported by the deep layer
trough in the central U.S.A. A cold front is just to the west of
the stationary front. The cold front will overtake the stationary
front, and eventually it will push itself into the Gulf of Mexico
during the next 24 hours or so. A small craft advisory is in
effect for parts of the upper Texas coast. Small craft should
exercise caution elsewhere along the upper Texas coast, from the
Houston/Galveston NWS office. A small craft advisory is in effect
in most parts of the middle Texas coast, from the Corpus Christi
NWS office. A small craft advisory is in effect for the lower
Texas coast, from the Brownsville NWS office.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KBBF.

IFR: KMZG, KBQX, KXIH, and KVAF.

MVFR: KBQX, KHHV, KEMK, KGUL, KGBK, KEHC, KGHB, KGRY, KATP, KEIR,
KSPR, KVOA, KMIS, KVKY, and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Brownsville, Port Isabel, and Harlingen. IFR in
Weslaco. MVFR in Alice and Robstown. IFR in Corpus Christi and at
the NAS in Corpus Christi. MVFR in Palacios, and at Angleton/Lake
Jackson. Earlier rain has ended in Beaumont/Port Arthur. MVFR in
Galveston. LOUISIANA: thunder and rain in parts of the Lake
Charles metropolitan area. MVFR in Lafayette, Port Fourchon, Baton
Rouge, and in Slidell. MISSISSIPPI: rain and thunder in Natchez. MVFR
in McComb and in parts of the Hattiesburg metropolitan area, in
Gulfport and Pascagoula. ALABAMA: MVFR in Mobile and Gulf Shores,
in Evergreen, Fort Rucker, and Dothan. FLORIDA: MVFR from Destin
westward in the Florida Panhandle, and in parts of the Panama City
metropolitan area, in Apalachicola.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow from the upper level trough of 24
hours ago covers the Caribbean Sea from 68W eastward. A NE-to-SW
oriented surface trough is along 19N59W 15N64W 11N67W. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 13N southward
between 60W and 65W. scattered moderate to isolated strong from
17N to 20N between 54W and 62W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 10N to 20N between 50W and 60W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the
Caribbean Sea, from 70W westward, away from the eastern Caribbean
Sea trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor imagery, elsewhere, to the west of the trough.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, between 74W in Colombia and
beyond NW Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N southward from 70W
westward.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
30/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.05 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level N-to-NE wind flow is moving across the island.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the area. Convective precipitation: rainshowers
are possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and
coastal plains, such as from 16N northward in the waters that are
to the south of Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no
ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling.
Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceiling. La Romana: VFR/no ceiling. Punta
Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Santiago: light rain. Puerto Plata: MVFR.
ceiling at 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that N and NE wind flow
will be moving across Hispaniola at the start of day one. An
anticyclonic circulation center will be on top of SE Cuba. The
anticyclonic center will move to Hispaniola by the end of day one,
bringing anticyclonic wind flow everywhere. The anticyclonic
center will move into the Caribbean Sea, and be about 120 nm to
the south of Haiti. Expect more anticyclonic wind flow during day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind flow
will move across Hispaniola during day one. An anticyclonic
circulation center will be about 380 nm to the north of Haiti.
Expect NE wind flow during day one. The anticyclonic circulation
center will move during day two, to a position that is about 640
nm to the NE of Hispaniola. Expect NE-to-E wind flow during much
of day two, becoming SE wind flow at the end of day two.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE-to-E wind flow
will move across the area during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean
anticyclonic circulation center that will be about 560 nm to the
NE of Hispaniola. Day two will consist of more NE-to-E wind flow
across Hispaniola, for the first half of the day. The rest of day
two will consist of an inverted trough moving across the area.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through 32N33W
to 26N44W, to 22N46W and 18N46W. This trough is supporting a
cold front that passes through 32N46W to 28N53W, and then
dissipating stationary from 28N53W to 26N60W and 25N67W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N
northward between 30W and 50W.

An upper level trough passes through the Madeira Archipelago, to
the Canary Islands, to 12N19 just to the east of the Cabo Verde
Islands. , to 10N28W. A cold front passes through 32N13W to
31N15W. A stationary front continues from 31N15w to 28N23W and
30N31W. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from
20N northward between Africa and 33W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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