[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is forecast to extend from 30N89W to 21N97W Wednesday
afternoon. The pressure gradient between the front and high
pressure building behind it will generate NW to N gale-force
winds south of 24N west of the front with sea heights to 10 feet.
Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 6N11W to 6N17W where it transitions to the ITCZ that continues
along 6N26W to 6N37W. West of the ITCZ, a 1011 mb low is centered
near 8N40W with scattered showers extending 210 nm SE from the
low. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms
are from 2N-11N E of 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Low pressure dominates across the basin ahead of a stationary
front that extends across central Louisiana, along SE Texas to NE
Mexico near 23N99W. Latest scatterometer data show fresh to near
gale S-SE flow N of 21N W of 90W and moderate to fresh winds in
the eastern half of the basin. CIRA LPW imagery show low level
moisture inflow to the N-NW Gulf, which is supporting dense fog or
hazy conditions N of 27N W of 88W. Vessels navigating in this
region should exercise caution as visibility may be low. The
stationary front will transition to a cold front tonight and will
extend across northern Florida SW to Vera Cruz coastal waters
Thursday near sunrise. Gale-force winds are forecast to develop
west of the front Wednesday afternoon. See special features for
further details.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle to upper level low centered between Puerto Rico and the
northern Leeward Islands support a 1008 mb low near 18N60W and
associated surface trough that extends from the low SW to 12N65W.
These features are supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms
over the Lesser Antilles and the SE Caribbean. In the SW basin,
the monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica and Panama to
northern Colombia, thus supporting isolated showers S of 12N.
Middle to upper level ridging and strong dry air subsidence from
aloft support fair weather elsewhere. The low center will continue
to move west over the NE Caribbean Wednesday and weaken to a
surface trough over Puerto Rico Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle to upper level ridging along with strong dry air subsidence from
aloft support fair weather across the Island. Fair weather is
forecast Wednesday but a moist airmass will move across the region
Thursday, thus increasing the chance of showers for the Dominican
Republic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough in the NW Atlantic continue to
support a cold front that extends from 30N53W to 27N60W to 26N68W.
A second cold front is in the E Atlantic from 30N16W to 28N21W to
28N30W being supported by a middle to upper level low centered in
NE Atlantic waters. There is no convection associated to any of
these fronts. A 1008 mb low is centered NE of the Leeward Islands
near 18N60W with associated surface trough along 21N55W SW to the
low to the SE Caribbean. This area of low pressure is supporting
scattered showers and tstms from 11N-23N between 50W and 63W. Low
to middle level moisture along with diffluent flow aloft support
similar shower activity in the central basin between 36W and 50W. The
next cold front will move off the Georgia coast Thursday evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net