[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST THU NOV 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Otto is centered near 11.0N 83.9W at 24/1800 UTC or
about 78 nm northwest of Limon, Costa Rica and about 60 nm south
south-east of Bluefields, Nicaragua moving west at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous strong
convection is from 10N to 12N between 83W and 85W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 08N to
14N between 82W and 86W. Please see latest NHC Intermediate
Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 07N12W to 05N13W where it transitions to the ITCZ
that continues to 06N30W to 10N44W. The ITCZ then resumes west
of a surface trough near 09N48W to the coast of South America
near 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-12N
between 30W and 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from southern Mississippi near 30N89W to
the NW Gulf of Mexico near 27N93W. A stationary front continues
to southern Texas near 27N97W. Scattered showers are within 30
nm of the fronts. 10-15 kt winds are on both sides of the front.
Elsewhere, 15-20 kt ENE winds are over the SE Gulf and the
Straits of Florida. In the upper levels, an upper level trough
extends from the Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula
supporting the surface fronts. Strong subsidence covers the
entire Gulf, thus maintaining fair weather conditions across the
remainder of the basin. Expect over the next 24 hours for the
cold front to move to the Florida panhandle, while the
stationary front remains over S Texas with showers.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Otto in the SW Caribbean continue to be the main concern
in the basin. The center of Otto will make landfall within the
next several hours and move across southern Nicaragua and
northern Costa Rica through tonight. The center of Otto is
expected to reach the Pacific coast of southern Nicaragua or
northern Costa Rica tonight. Some strengthening is possible
before landfall. Weakening is expected after landfall, and Otto
is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by tonight. Total
rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20
inches, can be expected across northern Costa Rica and southern
Nicaragua through today. These rains will likely result in life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides. Please see Special
Features above for further details. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is north of Otto from 14N to 18N
between 79W and 85W. The remnants of an old cold front over the
Windward Passage is producing scattered moderate convection N of
17N and E of 77W. High pressure building over the west Atlantic
will continue to support fresh to strong northeast winds over
the north-central and NW basin through Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

The remnants of a cold front extending from the central Atlantic
supports scattered to isolated showers over Hispaniola. Showers
associated with this feature will continue for the next 24 hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N72W
producing fair weather. A cold front is over the central
Atlantic from 31N49W to 23N60W. A dissipating cold front
continues to E Hispaniola near 19N69W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the front. A weak surface trough is over the E
Atlantic from 25N36W to 21N38W. Scattered showers are within 90
nm of the trough. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level
low is centered near 22N41W enhancing showers. Expect the cold
front to reach 31N44W in 24 hours with showers. Another cold
front will move into the northwest waters Saturday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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