[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240616 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016

Corrected to include the latest Otto advisory information...

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Otto is centered near 11.2N 82.4W at 24/0600 UTC or
about 80 nm north-northeast of Limon, Costa Rica and about 95 nm
east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua moving west at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous strong
convection is from 10N to 12N between 80W and 83W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is south of 19N between 77W
and 85W. Please see latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N16W to 8N17W to 7N19W where it transitions to
the ITCZ that continues along 8N36W to 9N50W to 10N61W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 6N-10N between 33W and 40W. Similar
convection is from 8N-17N between 21W and 27W and from 9N-11N
between 57W and 62W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level trough extending from Indiana south to
Mississippi and Alabama to the NW Gulf is supporting a cold
front from Louisiana near 29N92W to the southern tip of Texas with
possible isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the frontal
boundary. Deep layer dry air prevails elsewhere, thus maintaining
fair weather conditions across the remainder basin. Surface
ridging ahead of the front provide with gentle variable winds in
the NE Gulf while the latest scatterometer data show fresh to
strong E-NE flow in the SE basin. Variable gentle flow is W of
90W. The cold front will stall along the northern Gulf coastline
before sunrise through Friday morning when it will transition back
to a cold front. The reinforcing front will reach from northern
Florida to central Texas early Saturday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Otto in the SW Caribbean continue to be the main concern
in the basin. The center of Otto will move onshore within the
hurricane warning area later today, and reach the Pacific coast of
southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica early Friday. Some
strengthening is possible before landfall, with weakening expected
as the cyclone crosses southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. Total
rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20
inches, can be expected across northern Costa Rica and southern
Nicaragua through today. These rains will likely result in life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides. Please see Special
Features above for further details. The remnants of a stationary
front extending from the central Atlantic are being analyzed as a
surface along 18N68W to 16N72W, which are supporting scattered
moderate convection in the northern-central Caribbean N of 15N
between 67W and 77W. Isolated showers are across Hispaniola and
Puerto Rico. High pressure building over the west Atlantic will
continue to support fresh to strong northeast winds over the
northern-central and northwest basin through Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

The remnants of a stationary front extending from the central
Atlantic are being analyzed as a surface along 18N68W to 16N72W,
which are supporting scattered moderate convection in the
Hispaniola southern adjacent waters N of 15N between 67W and 77W.
Isolated showers are across Hispaniola. Showers associated with
this feature will continue through the morning hours today.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough N of 30N between 50W and 65W
supports a cold front from 30N51W to 25N58W where it transitions
to a stationary front to 20N64W. A surface trough follows from the
tail of the front to the eastern Dominican Republic to north-
central Caribbean waters. Isolated showers are within 60 nm
either side of the front. N of 25N west of the front surface
ridging and fair weather conditions prevail. In the NE basin, an
upper level low continue to reflect as a surface trough along
26N31W to 20N35W. The stationary front will weaken today as it is
dragged into the Central Atlantic. Surface ridge over the west
Atlantic will shift eastward through Friday night. A cold front
will move into the northwest waters Saturday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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