[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240007 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...update for T.S. Otto
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Otto was updated to Hurricane at 24/0000 UTC.
Hurricane Otto is centered near 11.2N 81.8W at 24/0000 UTC or
about 120 nm northeast of Limon, Costa Rica and about 155 nm
east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua moving west at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous strong
convection is within a 60 nm radius of 11.5N81.5W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is south of 14N west of
80W to inland over Central America from western Panama to
Nicaragua. Please see latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W to 9N20W where it transitions to the ITCZ
and continues along 8N26W to east of a surface trough near
9N30W, then resumes west of the trough near 10N34W along 9N48W
to 10N58W. A surface trough embedded within the ITCZ extends
from 12N30W to 8N32W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection are from 9N-12N between 26W-28W, within 180 nm
south of the ITCZ between 35W-48W, and from 10N-12N between 55W-
61W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper trough moving across the Mississippi Valley to over the
west Gulf is supporting a cold front that at 23/2100 UTC extends
into the Gulf over southeast Louisiana near 30N93W to a 1016 mb
low over south Texas near 26.5N98W then continues inland over
northeast Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are within 60/75 nm east of the front. The surface ridge
anchored over the eastern seaboard extends south over the east
Gulf and into the west Atlantic. The cold front will reach from
southeast Louisiana to south Texas Thursday morning where it
will stall and dissipate Thursday night. A second cold front
will move into the northwest Gulf Friday, reaching from northern
Florida to south Texas early Saturday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The primary concern this evening is Hurricane Otto. Please see
Special Features above. A stationary front in the central
Atlantic extends a surface trough across the Dominican Republic
near 19N69W to 16N72W. Scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are across the northeast Caribbean north of 16N
between 63W-74W, including the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola. A second surface trough extends from 17N74W to near
14N80W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
are from 14N-19N between 74W-81W. Easterly trade winds are
banking isolated showers over the northwest Caribbean south of
21N west of 86W including the Gulf of Honduras. Hurricane Otto
is forecasted to increase in forward speed on Thursday making
landfall in southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica early
Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends from the central Atlantic across the
Dominican Republic near 19N69W continuing into the Caribbean.
Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms across the
northeast Caribbean including the island of Hispaniola.
Lingering moisture coupled with the close proximity of the
surface trough could continue to give the island showers and
possible thunderstorms through Thursday with some clearing on
Friday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper ridge extends over the west Atlantis south of 30N. A
surface ridge anchored over the eastern CONUS extends over the
west Atlantic with dry, stable air north of 21N west of 54W. A
broad upper trough covers the remainder of the west into the
central Atlantic north of 30N supporting a cold front entering
the central Atlantic near 32N52W to 26N59W where it continues as
a stationary front to 20N66W and transitions to a surface trough
across the Dominican Republic into the Caribbean. Scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are south of 20N to
over Hispaniola west of the front to 72W. An upper low in the
east Atlantic is centered near 23N32W supporting a surface
trough that extends from 26N32W to 19N35W. Clusters of scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 20N-24N between 28W-
31W. An upper ridge to the east of the upper low is providing
difflunce aloft to generate scattered showers from 13N-24N east
of 29W to the coast of Africa including the Capo Verde Islands.
A surface ridge dominates the east Atlantic north of 27N east of
45W anchored by a 1029 mb high over the Azores. The stationary
front will weaken thorough Thursday as it is dragged into the
Central Atlantic. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will
shift eastward through Friday night. A cold front will move into
the northwest waters Saturday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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