[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Otto is centered near 10.7N 79.0W at 22/0600 UTC
or about 190 nm southeast of San Andres Island or about 290 nm
east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua moving S-SE at 2 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous heavy showers
are within 45 nm from the storm the center of Otto. Scattered
moderate convection is from 08N-15N between 78W-82W. Please see
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to 12N20W. The ITCZ begins near 13N40W and
continues along 11N50W to near 10N60W. Scattered to isolated
showers are within 180 nm either side of the ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface and middle level ridging as well as deep layer dry air
continue to support stable conditions and fair weather over the
entire Gulf of Mexico. The latest scatterometer data show gentle
NE flow E of 90W and moderate to locally fresh E-SE flow W of 90W. The
surface ridge currently anchored over Kentucky will move NE
through Wednesday near sunrise and will provide return flow ahead
of the next cold front to enter the NW Gulf waters at night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main concern in the basin is Tropical Storm Otto located in
the SW Caribbean. Please see Special Features above. A
stationary front extends from the central Atlantic across eastern
Puerto Rico near 18N65W SW to 15N70W to 13N77W with scattered
showers within 120 nm either side of the frontal boundary. The
tail of a second partial stationary front continues to weaken
across central Cuba to 21N80W to 19N83W. No convection is
associated with this second frontal boundary. Otto is expected to
have little net motion overnight, but a slow westward motion is
forecast to begin later today. Strengthening is expected during
the next 48 hours, and Otto is forecast to become a hurricane
later today or tonight. Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce
rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over San Andres and
Providencia islands, and portions of central and western Panama and
southeastern Costa Rica through Wednesday, with isolated totals
upwards of 10 to 15 inches across the higher terrain of Central
America. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides. The leading stationary front will weaken today and
dissipate overnight.

...HISPANIOLA...

The stationary front that extends from the central Atlantic
across eastern Puerto Rico into the Caribbean is generating
scattered to isolated showers over the the Dominican Republic and
adjacent waters. Lingering moisture associated with the front
could continue to give the island showers and possible
thunderstorms through Thursday, with the highest concentration
over the Dominican Republic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper trough covers the west and the central Atlantic
supporting a leading stationary front that extends through 30N54W
along 24N61W across eastern Puerto Rico and then into the
Caribbean Sea. Scattered to isolated showers are within 150 nm
either side of the front. The upper trough also supports a cold
front that extends from 30N61W to 24N70W where it becomes
stationary to central Cuba and into the northwest Caribbean. This
reinforcing cold front is embedded within dry, stable air aloft,
limiting shower activity. A surface ridge anchored over the
eastern CONUS extends over the far west Atlantic west of the
reinforcing cold front. An middle level low supports a surface
trough that extends from 23N34W through a 1012 mb low near 17N34W
continuing to 13N36W. The upper low is generating scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 11N-24N between
24W-34W. A surface ridge dominates the east Atlantic north of 26N
east of 50W anchored by a 1032 mb high about north of the Azores.
The west Atlantic reinforcing cold front will continue to move
east merging with the leading stationary front today. The
stationary portion of the reinforcing front will dissipate today.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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