[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1258 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Otto is centered near 11.5N 79.3W at 21/1800 UTC
or about 150 nm ESE of San Andres Island or about 265 nm E of
Bluefields Nicaragua remaining nearly stationary. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 08N-15N between 77W-83W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
12N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
13N38W to 10N50W to 07N58W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 04N-08N between 02W-17W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 09N-22N between 23W-38W. Much of this area of convection is
enhanced by a middle to upper level low centered near 23N37W and
focused on a 1014 mb surface low centered near 20N33W and the
associated surface trough extending SW from the low center to
14N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
The Gulf is under the influence of dry and stable westerly flow
aloft with a subtle upper level trough axis along 96W and mid-
level ridging over the basin and central CONUS. At the surface...
broad ridging is providing overall fair skies and conditions with
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. One exception is a surface
trough extending across the SW Gulf from 19N93W to 23N98W with
possible isolated showers occurring S of 23N W of 92W. Looking
ahead...the ridge is expected to gradually shift eastward across
the SE CONUS and into the SW North Atlc through Wednesday with
S-SE return flow re-establishing itself across portions of the
western Gulf waters. An area of low pressure will eject out of the
Rockies into the central Plains during this time with the
associated weak cold front to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana
coasts by Wednesday afternoon. The weak front will quickly become
stationary and diffuse across the NW Gulf and north-central Gulf
coast Thursday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The main feature in the Caribbean Sea is Tropical Storm Otto. Otto
is located at the western extent of a stationary front extending
across Puerto Rico to 15N70W to 13N76W. While convection remains
centralized in the vicinity of Otto...widely scattered showers
and tstms are occurring generally within 180 nm either side of the
stationary front. In addition...to the W of the front strong N to
NE winds are occurring between 70W-84W across portions of the
western Caribbean. The front is supported aloft by a broad middle
to upper level trough over the western North Atlc and a global
model indicated ribbon of mid-level energy extending from 27N61W
SW to 19N79W. Otto is expected to drift slowly westward with
fresh to strong NE winds expected W of 70W to continue between the
area of lower pressure and a ridge anchored across the SE CONUS
through much of the week.

...HISPANIOLA...
A stationary front extends across Puerto Rico to 15N70W to 13N76W
providing focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms within
180 nm either side of the boundary. Increased cloudiness and
possible isolated showers are noted across southeastern portions
of Hispaniola this afternoon. With the front expected to remain
in place to the SE of the island...precipitation and possible
convection is likely through Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Broad middle to upper troughing is noted on water vapor imagery
over the SW North Atlc region this afternoon supporting a cold
front analyzed from 32N61W SW to 26N70W to the central Cuba coast
near 22N79W. Isolated showers are possible within 75 nm either
side of the front. Otherwise...the remainder of the area to the
W of the front is influenced by surface ridging anchored across
the lower Mississippi River valley. To the E of the cold front
across the central Atlc...embedded within the broad troughing...
mid-level energy supports a stationary front analyzed from 32N53W
to 20N64W and across Puerto Rico into the central Caribbean Sea.
Low-level moisture convergence in the vicinity of the front along
with middle to upper level diffluence is generating scattered
showers and isolated tstms within 180 nm either side of the front.
Finally...across the eastern Atlc...a 1014 mb low is centered near
20N33W. This area of low pressure is supported aloft by a middle
to upper low centered near 23N37W. A surface trough extends NW
from the low center to 26N38W and SW from the low center to
14N38W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring
from 22N-28N between 23W-40W. Scattered showers and widely
scattered tstms are occurring from 09N-23N between 23W-38W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net