[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191159
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front passes through SE
Louisiana, into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to NE Mexico
just to the south of the deep south of Texas. Expect gale-force
N-to-NE winds and sea heights reaching 9 feet, to the north of the
cold front. Surface high pressure has been building across Texas
from the north to the south during the last 24 hours. Convective
precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate to the west
of the line from the coastal border of Mississippi/Alabama, to
28N90W 25N93W 18N94W. Isolated moderate also is to the S and SE
of the line 26N82W 24N94W 18N94W. Please read the High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/AXNT20 KNHC for
more details.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near
07N12W and 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to 05N20W 06N34W
08N45W 06N50W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 07N
to 09N between 37W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
elsewhere from 04N to 10N from 50W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area that is
to the east of the advancing cold front. The information about the
cold front and gale-force winds is in the SPECIAL FEATURES
section.

Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the
eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the
Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KHHV, KVQT, KGHB, KSPR, AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: VFR/no ceilings. LOUISIANA: rain has ended in New Iberia.
MVFR in Port Fourchon and Boothville, and at the NAS in New
Orleans. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in McComb, in parts of the Hattiesburg
metropolitan area, and in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: MVFR in the Mobile
metropolitan area, in Evergreen, Fort Rucker, and in Dothan.
FLORIDA: MVFR in Crestview. LIFR in the NW parts of the Panama
City metropolitan area, Marianna, Apalachicola, Tallahassee,
Perry. MVFR in Brooksville, at the Tampa Executive Airport,
Sarasota, and in Punta Gorda.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep layer trough passes through the area that is just to the
east of Bermuda, to the central Bahamas, to NW Cuba, toward the
coastal areas of Honduras in Central America. The trough supports
a cold front that passes through 32N56W to 25N60W to 20N63W. A
stationary front continues from 20N63W to 20N69W, across
Hispaniola along a NE-to-SW line, to 16N76W in the Caribbean Sea,
to the northern coast of Nicaragua near 14N83W. Convective
precipitation in the Atlantic Ocean: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic to
20N between 63W and 70W. isolated moderate within 90 nm on either
side of 32N54W 25N56W 20N65W. Convective precipitation in the
Caribbean Sea: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
between 69W and 83W. Scattered to numerous strong from 13N
southward between 80W and the coast of Central America.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1007 mb low pressure center is in the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea near 11N82W, off the coast of SE Nicaragua. Convective
precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong from 13N southward
between 80W and the coast of Central America. The chance of this
feature developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours is low.

Upper level SW wind flow covers the area to the east of the line
that runs from central Cuba to the central coast of Honduras. An
upper level ridge runs from the SE corner of the area beyond
Hispaniola. An upper level trough covers the rest of the area, in
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
19/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.70 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the entire area.
Please refer to the section with the title FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA for more details. An upper level passes
through the Atlantic Ocean, across NW Cuba, toward Honduras.
A stationary front cuts across Hispaniola along a NE-to-SW
oriented line. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible across the island, and in the coastal waters/coastal
areas.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR/no
ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling.
few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceiling. few
cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: VFR/no ceiling. Punta Cana: VFR.
few cumulonimbus clouds. Santiago: moderate rain. Puerto Plata:
moderate rain.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. An upper level
ridge will be in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across
the area during the next 48 hours. A ridge will be in the SE
corner of the Caribbean Sea. A trough will be approaching from the
west. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that a changing
pattern will start with an inverted trough, followed by a
trough/ridge couplet from east-to-west for 12 hours or so,
followed by a ridge, to end day one. Day two will start with
anticyclonic wind flow for the first 12 hours or so, followed
by NE wind flow with a ridge.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N11W, to 29N24W, to a
cyclonic circulation center that is near 23N37W, to 17N43W and
10N49W. A surface trough is along 34W/35W from 20N to 25N. A
second surface trough is along 14N30W 10N38W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 22N to 29N between 28W and
40W. Rainshowers are possible also from 10N northward between 20W
and 60W. Isolated moderate from 08N to 10N between 50W and 60W.

A western Atlantic Ocean surface ridge extends from a NE Florida
1023 mb high pressure center, through 27N73W, to 23N65W.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean surface ridge passes through 32N45W to
26N50W, to 17N58W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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