[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the
northwest Gulf of Mexico tonight, move across the central Gulf on
Saturday, then extend from the Straits of Florida to the SW Gulf
near 21N95W to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sunday.
Strong northwesterly winds are expected over the northern Gulf in
the wake of the front with building seas to 8-9 ft. As a strong
high pressure builds behind the front reaching eastern Mexico and
the western Gulf, northerly gale force winds will begin by early
Saturday just north of Tampico, and spread southward toward the
area of Veracruz by late Saturday. Seas of 10-13 ft are expected
within the area of gale force winds. Winds will diminish below
gale force across the SW Gulf by Sunday. Please refer to the High
Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/AXNT20 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W to 08N20W where it transitions into the ITCZ
and continues through 09N36W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 05N-11N between 18W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Gale-force winds will develop across the western Gulf on Saturday
behind a cold front that will enter the northern Gulf tonight.
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details. Dry
and stable conditions prevail across the basin at this time as a
surface ridge extends across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high
centered over northern Florida near 29N82W. With this, a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the area. Expect
through the next 24 hours for convection to develop across the
northwest Gulf as the front approaches. This activity will move
southeast with the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the west Atlantic across Hispaniola
into the central Caribbean from 18N72W to 14N83W. A diffluent flow
aloft combines with the front to generate scattered moderate
convection from 12N-19N between 77W-84W. A stationary 1006 mb
surface low continues north of Costa Rica near 11N82W enhancing
convection from 10N-12N and west of 80W. Upper-level winds have
become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation in this
area, and during the next couple of days any development should be
slow to occur. After that time, environmental conditions are
expected to be marginally conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression could form early next week while the low
moves slowly and erratically. To the east, a surface trough
extends across the Mona Passage from 20N65W to 16N68W. Diffluence
aloft is also enhancing convection in this area affecting Puerto
Rico, the Virgin Islands and adjacent waters north of 15N between
64W-69W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northeasterly
behind the front including the Windward Passage and the lee of
Cuba. An area of fresh winds are also prevailing near the surface
low in the southern Caribbean. Expect for the front to remain
nearly stationary over Hispaniola over the weekend while gradually
dissipating. The surface trough over the Mona Passage will drift
westward and combined with the stationary front, will keep the
north-central Caribbean very unstable mainly for the area of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. A cold front will move into the west
Caribbean on Sunday followed by fresh to strong northeast winds.

...HISPANIOLA...

A stationary front extends across the island from 20N70W to
18N72W. Atmospheric conditions across the island are forecast to
remain very moist and unstable during the weekend with the
potential to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
as the front persists and combines with a diffluent flow aloft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad area of high pressure prevails across the west Atlantic
mainly west of 68W. To the east, a 996 mb surface low extends its
frontal boundary south analyzed as a cold front from 31N59W to
21N64W then as a stationary front from that point into the
Caribbean basin. No significant convection is related to the cold
front at this time. Scattered moderate convection is observed east
of the stationary front affecting the waters north of Puerto Rico
south of 21N between 64W-67W. An upper-level low is reflected at
the surface as a trough that extends from 26N34W to 23N35W.
Another surface trough was analyzed from 16N29W to 13N32W.
Isolated showers are observed along this feature. The remainder of
the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by
a stationary 1028 mb high centered near 39N36W. During the next 24
hours, the frontal system between 60W-70W will become stationary
begin to weaken. Expect for a strong cold front to move off the
northeast Florida coast on Saturday night and extend from 31N68W
to northern Bahamas on Sunday. Fresh to strong northwesterly winds
will follow the front Saturday night and early Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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