[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171123
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 8N13W to 8N15W where it transitions to the ITCZ
and continues along 10N31W 8N46W to South America near 7N57W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 4N-7N
between 18W-24W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection are from 5N-8N between 10W-14W, from 4N-11N
between 16W-30W, and from 2N-5N between 30W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dry and stable airmass continues to dominate the Gulf of
Mexico this morning with a surface ridge extending over the
Gulf from the southeast CONUS anchored by a series of highs
inland over the east CONUS and a 1018 mb high near Pensacola,
Florida. This is giving the Gulf clear skies except over the
southwest Gulf, within 120 nm along the coast of Mexico from 20N-
24N where scattered showers are possible. The surface ridge is
giving the Gulf east to southeast return flow. This weather
pattern will persist through Friday. A strong cold front will
move into the northwest Gulf late Friday night and reach south
Florida to the southwest Gulf by Sunday morning. This could
produce gale force winds over the southwest Gulf Saturday into
Sunday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A remnant cold front extends from the west Atlantic to over Cuba
near 21N76W where it has pulled up stationary extending across
the Cayman Islands to along the coast of Honduras west of 86W.
Scattered showers are possible within 60 nm of the front west of
83W. Southeast of the front is a persistent surface trough that
extends from Jamaica near 17N77W through a weak 1008 mb low near
13N80W to Panama near 9N82W. Clusters of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 210 nm east and 180 nm west of
the surface trough. This activity is being enhanced by an upper
ridge that has persisted over the Caribbean this week. A second
surface trough is moving across the east Caribbean extending
along 66W from 13N-18N. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 14N-18N between 63W-70W including
portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The front over
the northwest Caribbean coupled with upper ridge over the
Caribbean is producing a diffluent environment, then adding the
moisture associated with the western surface trough are
generating scattered  and possible isolated thunderstorms north
of 17N between 73W-78W including east Cuba and most of Haiti.
The cold front is expected to stall from the Windward Passage to
the Nicaragua/Honduras border this evening. The low will meander
over the southwest Caribbean into the weekend when a tropical
depression could from. The second surface trough will continue
west through the end of the week.

...HISPANIOLA...

The upper ridge over the Caribbean coupled with the approaching
cold front is creating a diffluent environment across the
island. Moisture from the system over the southwest Caribbean is
advecting across the island giving parts of Haiti scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms. The cold front is
expected to stall over the Windward Passage this evening. This
will continue to produce showers and possible thunderstorms
across the island through the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough reaching from New England to the central Bahamas
is supporting a cold front that extends from a 1006 mb low near
32N68W along 25N70W continuing across the southern Bahamas to
over Cuba near 21N76W where it continues into the Caribbean as a
stationary front. Scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are within 120 nm east of the front. Numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms are ahead of the front within
60 nm of a line from 20N72W along 25N66W 31N63W. An upper low is
in the east Atlantic near 27N27W supporting a surface trough
that extends 30N25W to 22N28W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 26N-30N between 22W-29W. A large surface
ridge dominates the remainder of the east and central Atlantic
anchored by a 1032 mb high about 400 nm northwest of the Azores.
The west Atlantic front will move east reaching from 32N62W to
22N66W then stationary to the Windward Passage this evening. The
cold front will continue into the central Atlantic Friday. The
next even stronger cold front is expected in the west Atlantic
late in the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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