[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161144
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 7N12W to 8N15W where the ITCZ begins and continues
along 10N27W 7N49W to near 8N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from the equator to 3N east of 2W across
the Prime Meridian. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection are from 4N-9N between 11W-18W, from 8N-11N
between 21W-30W, and from 13N to the coast of South America
between 58W-61W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90
nm north of the ITCZ between 34W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper trough extends from over New England into the northeast
Gulf of Mexico over the northeast Florida then narrows as it
extends west to south Texas supporting a surface trough that
extends from Alabama near 31N88W into the Gulf across the
Mississippi Delta of Louisiana to 25N95W. Dry, stable air aloft
covers the north Gulf limiting any shower activity with this
trough. The remnant cold front has exited the Gulf. However,
scattered to numerous showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are still in the Straits of Florida south of a
line from southeast Florida near 26N80W to Cuba near 23N83W.
Scattered showers with possible isolated thunderstorms are
inland and within 90 nm along the coast of Mexico south of 22N
east of 95W. The surface trough over will stall and dissipate
over the central Gulf tonight. A strong cold front will move
into the northwest Gulf late Friday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A remnant cold front extends from the west Atlantic across Cuba
near 23N81W along 20N86W to over the Yucatan peninsula to
17N92W. Scattered to numerous showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are northwest of a line from Cuba near 22N81W to
the Yucatan near 18N88W. An elongated east/west upper ridge
remains anchored near 16N70W and extends into the west Atlantic.
At the surface is a surface trough that extends from 14N73W
through a 1007 mb low near 12N79W then west to over Central
America near the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border. Clusters of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 18N
between 76W-83W and from 18N across Cuba and through the
Windward Passage between 74W-78W. The upper ridge is providing
difflunce aloft to enhance the showers and thunderstorms
associated with this system. A surface trough is over east
Caribbean extending from 17N62W to the coast of Venezuela near
11N63W with isolated showers and thunderstorms south of 17N east
of 65W to the Lesser Antilles. The cold front will stall from
the Windward Passage to Honduras/Nicaragua border Thursday
evening then persist through the end of the week. The east
Caribbean surface trough will continue to track west into the
south-central Caribbean through Friday. The broad area of low
pressure will meander over the southwest Caribbean through the
end of the week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the
northwest coast of Haiti this monring. Afternoon showers will
develop over the island again today with showers and
thunderstorms increasing with the approach of the cold front
as it stalls in the Windward Passage on Thursday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean extends over the west
Atlantic between 60W-76W. At the surface is a remnant, slow
moving cold front that extends through 32N69W along 27N75W then
across the Bahama Islands to over Cuba near 23N81W into the
northwest Caribbean. Scattered to numerous showers and possible
isolated thunderstorms are within 75 nm east of the front and
within 120 nm west of the front. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from over the southern Bahama Islands to over
Cuba and the through the Windward Passage between 71W-76W. A
narrow upper trough extends into the central Atlantic through
32N55W to 22N49W with a surface trough extending from 32N55W
along 26N54W to 20N56W with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms east of the surface trough to 46W and from 16N-19N
between 48W-54W. An upper low over the east Atlantic centered
near 28N26W is supporting a surface trough that extends from
30N24W to 24N24W and is generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 25N-30N between 20W-28W. A broad
surface ridge covers the remainder of the east Atlantic anchored
by a 1034 mb high about 300 nm northwest of the Azores. The west
Atlantic cold front will move slowly southeast reaching from
32N67W to the Turks and Caicos becoming stationary into the
Caribbean through the Windward Passage on Thursday. The north
portion of the front will continue into the central Atlantic
through the end of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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