[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near
08N13W. The ITCZ continues from 08N13W to 07N22W 10N35W 07N45W,
and 07N55W. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong from 13N southward from 53W
eastward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area
that is from 10N southward between 54W and South America.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from
06N to 08N between 55W and 59W.

A surface trough curves along 20N56W 16N60W, to Trinidad. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
08N to 13N between 57W and 62W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is moving through the eastern sections of
the U.S.A., through the Florida Panhandle, into the north central
Gulf of Mexico, and toward NE coastal Mexico. One cold front is
passing through the Atlantic Ocean, along 32N73W, across the NW
Bahamas, to the Florida Keys, to the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. A stationary front curves from the northern coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula to the northern part of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec, and to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is inland
near 18N93W. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the south of
the line 29N83W 26N87W 26N97W, and from 27N to 28N between 86W and
88W. A second cold front is inland, moving through central Texas.

Upper level W and SW wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico.

A surface ridge passes through the deep south of Texas, through
the coastal plains of Mexico, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are forecast to start to be
experienced later tonight, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the
eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the
Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

in TEXAS and LOUISIANA: VFR/no ceilings. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in
Natchez. FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough that is in the SW corner of the area, curves
from 16N80W to 13N79W, to a 1009 mb low pressure center that is
near 11N77W, and to the coast of Colombia near 10N76W. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 14N to 16N between 77W and
79W, and from 10N to 12N between 78W and 81W. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development of
this area of low pressure during the next several days. It is
likely that a tropical depression may form by late this week or
during the weekend while the low drifts northward or northeastward.
The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone is low.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area, except
for the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level ridge
extends from northern Colombia, toward Jamaica, toward the Yucatan
Channel.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery from 15N southward between 70W and 73W, and mostly from
70W eastward. Middle level NW wind flow is in the area of the
comparatively drier air.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
15/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.02 in
St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 0.01 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the entire area.
A surface trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean along 21N64W,
to the eastern part of the Dominican Republic. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 15N to 21N between
64W and 70W, including in the coastal waters/coastal areas of the
eastern part of the Dominican Republic. Isolated moderate to
locally strong also from 16N northward between 71W and 76W in the
southern coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR/no
ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few
cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana: rain is in the
area. MVFR, ceiling at 1800 feet. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling.
Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the first 6 to 12 hours or so,
followed by SW wind flow for the rest of the 48-hour forecast
period, as an anticyclonic circulation center moves directly to
the south of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows
that day one will start with an anticyclonic circulation center
directly on top of Hispaniola at the start of day one. The wind
flow will be from the SE and S as the anticyclonic center moves
eastward, away from Hispaniola. Expect S wind flow for the rest of
day one, as the anticyclonic center moves toward the NE corner of
the Caribbean Sea. Expect SW wind flow across the area as the
anticyclonic center remains in the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that anticyclonic wind
flow will cover the area for the first 12 hours to 18 hours,
followed by SE and S wind flow, as the anticyclonic circulation
center moves to the east of Hispaniola. Expect southerly wind flow
during day two, with the anticyclonic circulation center remaining
just outside the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is passing through the Atlantic Ocean, along 32N73W,
across the NW Bahamas, to the Florida Keys, to the northern coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula. Convective precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within
180 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N69W to
28N73W, beyond 27N80W, along the SE Florida coast.

A deep layer central Atlantic Ocean trough is supporting a 1012 mb
low pressure center and an occluded frontal boundary. The 1014 mb
low pressure center is near 30N55W. The triple point for the
occlusion is near 35N53W. The cold front is along 35N53W 32N50W
27N50W 23N54W. A surface trough continues from 23N54W to 22N65W.
A separate surface trough extends from the 1012 mb low pressure
center to 27N55W 24N61W 24N70W. The upper level cyclonic
circulation center is near 30N55W. Convective precipitation:
Isolated moderate to locally strong from 18N to 30N between 45W
and 55W. Isolated moderate from 30N northward between 47W and 58W.

An upper level trough curves from a 28N22W cyclonic circulation
center, to 22N32W and 16N36W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the area from 16N northward 40W eastward. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 26N northward between 19W
and 26W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 14N northward between Africa and 48W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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