[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
657 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

Broad high pressure over the eastern U.S. extends a ridge axis
S-SW along Mexico, the NW Gulf and the western portion of the Bay
of Campeche. In the southern Gulf, a stationary front prevails
extending from 23N85W to 22N91W to a nearly stationary 1013 mb
low in the Bay of Campeche near 19N93W. The pressure gradient
between these features generates strong to gale force NW to N
winds S of 22N west of 94W with seas from 8 to 11 feet. Gale
force winds are forecast to diminish tonight, however fresh to
strong winds will prevail in this region through Tuesday morning.
Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 07N14W to 04N25W to 05N40W to 07N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm either side of the
ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning continues in effect for a portion of the SW Gulf
waters being generated by strong pressure gradient between high
pressure in the far W and NW Gulf and along Mexico, and low
pressure associated with a stationary front connected to a low
center in the Bay of Campeche. Gale winds are forecast to
diminish tonight, however fresh to strong winds are expected to
continue through Tuesday morning. Please refer to the special
features section above for further details. Middle to upper level
SW flow advects EPAC moisture to the basin, which is supporting
scattered to isolated showers west of 90W and in the NE Gulf N of
28N. A middle to upper level trough in the Atlantic between 40W
and 70W with base near 26N supports a cold front in the SW N
Atlantic that transitions to a stationary front near 28N72W,
continues across northern Florida to 29N82W to 28N84W in the NE
Gulf. This small portion of the stationary front in the Gulf will
weaken and dissipate tonight while a new developing cold front
displaces over Florida through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle to upper level ridging and strong dry air subsidence from
aloft provide fair weather conditions to the NW and SE basin.
However, deep layer moisture across the central and SW Caribbean
along with upper level diffluence support numerous to scattered
heavy showers and tstms from 11N to 16N between 78W and 83W. A
surface trough along 18N77W to 11N80W enhances this convection. A
shear line, remnants of a stationary front, supports scattered to
isolated showers over the Dominican Republic and adjacent waters.
These showers extend SE to southern Puerto Rico adjacent waters. GOES
QPE imagery show rainfall accumulations of half an inch E of 71W
over the past 6 hours in Hispaniola. Otherwise, moderate trades
are E of 80W and gentle to moderate NE flow dominate the NW
Caribbean waters. A center of low pressure is forecast to develop
from the surface trough in the SW Caribbean, which will prevail in
this region through Wednesday near sunrise, then is forecast to
move N-NE towards Jamaica. A cold front will enter the far NW
Caribbean early Wednesday morning.

...HISPANIOLA...

A shear line, remnants of a stationary front, supports scattered
to isolated showers over the Dominican Republic and adjacent
waters. GOES QPE imagery show rainfall accumulations of half an
inch E of 71W over the past 6 hours in Hispaniola. Fresh to
strong winds are across the Windward Passage tonight and will
continue through the next 12 hours. Please refer to the High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough in the Atlantic between 40W
and 70W with base near 26N supports a cold front from 30N55W to
27N64W to 28N72W where it transitions to a stationary front and continues
across northern Florida to 29N82W to 28N84W in the NE Gulf. Ahead
of this front, a dissipating stationary front extends from 29N48W
to 23N61W, then continuing as a shear line SW to NE Hispaniola
near 19N70W. Scattered showers are between the two frontal
boundaries N of 25N. Otherwise the remainder SW basin between the
fronts is dominated by surface ridging as well as the E Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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