[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...A GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The current synoptic situation consists of a stationary front
23N85W 24N90W 22N93W, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is
near 20N93W, to 18N93.5W. Gale-force NW winds are to the south of
21N to the west of 95W. Expect sea heights to range from 9 feet to
12 feet. Expect the gale-force conditions to continue for the next
12 hours or so. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...for more details.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea near
10N14W, and it curves to 09N16W and 08N18W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N18W to 06N22W 04N30W, and 03N41W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 08N
southward from 47W eastward.

A surface trough curves along 14N49W 11N52W 07N53W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
07N to 13N between 46W and 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from Mexico, from
109W eastward, across the Gulf of Mexico, and beyond Florida. A
stationary front is along 23N85W 24N90W 22N93W, to a 1013 mb low
pressure center that is near 20N93W, to 18N93.5W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
within a 60 nm radius of 22N93W. rainshowers are possible
elsewhere in much of the area, mostly from 90W westward.

A surface ridge passes through the deep south of Texas, through
the coastal plains of Mexico, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico.
Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: rain in parts of the deep south of Texas, and into the
middle Texas Gulf coastal plains. LOUISIANA: LIFR conditions that
were in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area have improved,
according to the last observation. MISSISSIPPI: VFR/no ceilings.
ALABAMA: MVFR in parts of SE Alabam. FLORIDA: MVFR in parts of the
Panama City metropolitan area. LIFR in parts of the Tampa
metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A ridge extends
from northern sections of Colombia and NW Venezuela northwestward,
into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough is along 79W/81W from 16N southward. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 13N to 17N between 74W and
78W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate is elsewhere from 18N
southward between 70W and 84W.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
13/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.09 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Merida, Mexico.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the eastern half of the
island. Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the western half
of the island. A deep layer trough passes through 19N52W in the
Atlantic Ocean, toward the Greater Antilles. A stationary front
continues from 21N58W in the Atlantic Ocean to 21N65W, and
dissipating across Hispaniola. A surface trough extends from the
SE Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, to SE Cuba. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate within 30 nm to 60 nm on either
side of 21N60W 22N61W 21N67W, to 19N71W inland, to 17N74W to the
south of Haiti.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR/no
ceilings. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceilings.
few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceilings. few
cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: VFR/no ceilings. Punta Cana:
nearby rainshowers. MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet. Santiago: MVFR.
ceiling at 1400 feet. Puerto Plata: rain. MVFR. ceiling at 1600
feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that first N wind flow,
and then NW wind flow, will move across the area, with an E-to-W
oriented ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that N
wind flow will be present across Hispaniola, with an E-to-W
oriented ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that a
mixture of NE wind flow, and broad anticyclonic wind flow, will
move across the area during the next 48 hours, with an E-to-W
oriented ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level NW wind flow moves from the SE U.S.A. toward a 60W
Atlantic Ocean deep layer trough. The deep layer trough is
supporting a cold front that passes through 32N56W to 29N65W and
29N69W. A stationary front continues from 29N65W to 30N77W and to
Florida near 28N83W on the Florida west coast. Convective
precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
precipitation are to the north of the line that passes through
32N46W 23N55W 27N80W.

A deep layer central Atlantic Ocean trough is weakening along
32N45W to 27N44W 20N48W 19N52W toward the Greater Antilles. This
trough still is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N45W
to 26N50W and 21N58W. A stationary front continues from 21N58W
to 21N65W, and dissipating across Hispaniola. A surface trough
extends from the SE Bahamas, through the Windward Passage, to SE
Cuba. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 30 nm to
60 nm on either side of 21N60W 22N61W 21N67W, to 19N71W inland,
to 17N74W to the south of Haiti.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N32W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 12N northward
between 20W and 45W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
from 20N to 28N between 28W and 36W. Surface anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 17N northward between Africa
and 44W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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