[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The pressure gradient generated by
the building high pressure over the north-western Gulf of Mexico
and lower pressures to the south is supporting gale-force winds
within an area bonded by 21N96W to 23N97W to 21N97W to 19N96W to
18N94W to 20N94W to 21N96W, including within 60 nm east of
Veracruz. These winds are prevailing west of a stationary front
that extends from 18N94W to 24N93W to 25N88W. These conditions
will continue through the next 48 hours, when they will diminish
below gale force after sunrise on Monday. Seas will build locally
to 12 ft during the strongest winds. Please refer to the High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 12N16W to 04N29W to 02N45W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 100 nm on either side of the axis between
20W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters. Please
refer to the section above for details. A dry stationary front
extends from 18N94W to 24N93W to 25N88W. South of it, a 1014 mb
surface low is centered over the Bay of Campeche near 20N93W with
a surface trough extending from the low to 23N92W. Scattered
moderate convection is developing along the trough. To the north,
a 1020 mb surface low is centered over southeast Texas near
30N94W and extends a cold front from that point to 29N86W to
29N83W. A dry surface trough extends across the Florida Straits
and west Atlantic from 24N83W to 26N79W. Scatterometer data
depicts strong to gale force winds over the southwest Gulf west of
the stationary front while moderate easterly winds prevail
elsewhere. Expect for the stationary front to prevails during the
next 24 hours. The cold front will continue moving south across
the east Gulf and Florida peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A diffluent flow aloft across the southern Caribbean waters is
supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms south
of 15N between 70W-83W. At the surface, a trough accompanies this
convection extending from 17N75W to 09N77W. Another area of
diffluence aloft supports scattered moderate convection south of
13N and east of 66W. A cold front extends north of Hispaniola
enhancing cloudiness and convection across the island.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the
basin. Expect for the trough drift westward while weakening.
Little change is expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Cloudiness and isolated showers are observed over the Mona Passage
enhanced by the proximity of a cold front currently located north
of the island. Similar activity will continue through the next 24
hours as the weather pattern will not change.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 29N81W to
31N72W. To the south, a surface trough extends from the Florida
Straits near 25N80W to 29N75W. Another cold front extends across
the central Atlantic from 20N74W to 22N60W to 31N51W. Isolated
showers are observed along these boundaries. A surface trough
extends from 15N48W to 11N49W. Scattered showers prevail along and
east of the trough between 40W-48W. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by a surface ridge, anchored by a 1031 mb high centered
near 37N24W. Expect for the fronts to continue moving east
enhancing winds/seas. Another wind surge will reach the western
Atlantic waters north of 30N east of 80W within the next 24 hours.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in this area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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