[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1242 AM EST WED NOV 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
08N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N19W to 06N35W to 07N49W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 02N-16N between 16W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Southwesterly to westerly flow aloft prevails over the Gulf basin
this evening as a middle to upper level trough is noted on water
vapor imagery over the central US Plains extending an axis SW to
an upper level low centered over north-central Mexico near
29N105W. The troughing supports a 1015 mb low analyzed across the
north-central Gulf near 28N90W with a surface trough extending SW
to 26N91W to 24N95W to 19N95W. Plenty of Pacific moisture and
cloudiness continues to advect northeastward across central Mexico
and much of the western and northern portions of the the Gulf with
scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring NW of a line from
30N85W to 20N97W. The remainder of the basin is under the
influence of a ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high centered across
the SE CONUS. Primarily moderate to fresh E-SE winds are expected
across the eastern Gulf through Wednesday as the surface trough
remains nearly stationary. In addition...a cold front is expected
to move across the northern Gulf waters Wednesday and provide
fresh to strong NE winds N of the front and fresh to strong N-NW
winds W of the boundary across the far western Gulf. Thereafter
through Friday...the front is expected to gradually become
stationary from the Straits of Florida to the western waters near
24N96W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad upper level trough is noted over the central Caribbean
with axis extending from over 20N68W SW to a base over 14N75W.
Water vapor imagery indicates dry air aloft in association with
the troughing and areas to the west where upper level ridging
prevails. However to the east of the troughing...upper level flow
becomes southwesterly with moisture and cloudiness increasing
across the eastern Caribbean. Isolated showers and tstms are
occurring N of 15N E of 68W. In addition...to the E of the Lesser
Antilles...a 1009 mb low is centered near 12N60W with a surface
trough extending northward to 18N59W. Scattered showers and widely
scattered tstms are occurring from 11N-20N between 56W-63W. While
the low is expected to dissipate during the next 24 hours...the
trough is expected to drift westward within gentle to moderate
trade wind flow.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently a lingering surface trough extends from N of Puerto
Rico near 20N66W to 18N72W providing focus for possible isolated
showers across the island this evening. Aloft however...dry and
stable NW flow prevails on the western periphery of an upper
level trough axis exiting to the east. As the surface trough
boundary becomes diffuse during the next 24 to 36 hours...fair
skies and conditions are expected through Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A vigorous middle to upper level low is centered north of the
discussion area near 39N58W and is nearly collocated with a gale-
force 996 mb low centered near 37N60W. The associated cold front
is analyzed from 32N58W SW to 28N61W to 27N67W with another two
surface trough boundaries analyzed to the SE of the main front.
The primary surface trough extends from 32N51W to 25N55W to 21N60W
to 19N70W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring
generally from 18N-28N between 55W-67W...and N of 23N between
45W-55W. The remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence
of a surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high centered across
South Carolina near 34N82W. Otherwise...the eastern Atlc is under
the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high
centered SE of the Azores near 36N24W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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