[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST MON NOV 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 05N30W 08N46W.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 13N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the Gulf of Mexico.
An upper level trough is moving toward the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, from the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation:
Areas of low level-to-middle level clouds and possible rainshowers
are moving from east to west, across the area.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow also covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 23N northward.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Rockport. heavy rain in Palacios. MVFR in Bay City.
heavy rain in Sugar Land. thunder and rain from the Houston
Intercontinental Airport to Tomball to Conroe to Huntsville. rain
in Beaumont/Port Arthur and Jasper. LOUISIANA: light rain in parts
of the Lake Charles metropolitan area. from MISSISSIPPI to
FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak and remnant upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area
that is from the Windward Passage eastward. A surface trough is
along 72W/73W from 12N to 19N in Haiti. This trough and the large-
scale cyclonic wind flow have been in this area more or less
during the last few days, being associated earlier with an
Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong from 14N to 20N between 60W
and 73W.

An upper level trough is moving toward the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, from the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level W-to-SW wind
flow is to the east of the trough. Upper level SW is moving from
Colombia and Venezuela, into the central sections of the Caribbean
Sea. The wind flow eventually merges with the area of weak and
remnant cyclonic wind flow, that is from Windward Passage
eastward.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
07/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.90 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the area. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
19N to 21N between 67W and 71W off the coast of Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, at 07/0200 UTC:
rain. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceilings. few
cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceilings. few
cumulonimbus clouds. rain and thunder from one hour ago have
ended. La Romana: rain and thunder. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings.
Santiago and Puerto Plata: rain and thunder.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB and for 500 mb shows that SW
wind flow will move across the area during day one. A trough will
move across the area during day two, and the wind flow will become
NW after the trough moves across the area. The passage of the
trough at 500 mb will be comparatively more subtle and less-
pronounced than the passage of the trough at 250 mb.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that S wind flow, with a
ridge, will move across the area during day one. Expect S-to-SW
wind flow, in a ridge, for day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward
from 50W westward. An upper level trough that is in the area is
supporting a stationary front that curves through 32N59W to a 1010
mb low pressure center that is near 28N63W. A cold front continues
from the 1010 mb low center, to 24N70W, and 24N74W. A stationary
front continues from 24N74W to 22N81W in Cuba. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
23N northward between 50W and 60W, and from 19N to 21N between 67W
and 71W off the coast of Hispaniola. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 20N between 50W and 70W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 22N northward
between 30W and 50W. This area of cyclonic wind flow supports a
stationary front that passes through 32N38W to a 1017 mb low
pressure center that is near 30N38W. The stationary front
continues from the 1017 mb low center, to 28N36W, 25N38W, and
23N42W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
20N northward between 30W and 50W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow and a trough have moved into
Africa mostly. Some residual deep layer cyclonic wind flow remains
from 20W eastward. A surface trough is along 31N12W, across the
eastern parts of the Canary Islands, to 26N18W. Rainshowers are
possible from 20N northward from 20W eastward.

A central Atlantic Ocean surface ridge is along 20N55W to 28N48W
beyond 32N44W. A second surface ridge is in the eastern Atlantic
Ocean, from the Cabo Verde Islands to 24N29W beyond 32N29W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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