[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
152 AM EDT SAT NOV 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea near
10N14W to 09N15W. The ITCZ continues from 09N15W to 08N20W 08N26W
08N35W 09N41W and 08N50W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
the area that is from 30W eastward, across the area of the ITCZ.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 05N to 07N between 10W and 17W, from 04N to 10N
between 17W and 28W, from 03N to 07N between 32W and 44W, and
from 04N to 13N between 44W and 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through 32N74W to 29N76W, to 26N81W
in Florida, to 26N84W. A cold front passes through 32N73W in the
Atlantic Ocean, to Florida near 29N82W, northwestward into SE
Louisiana. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor imagery to the N and NW of the trough, in the Atlantic
Ocean and in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 25N northward from
90W eastward in the Gulf of Mexico. In the Atlantic Ocean: to the
north of the line that passes through 32N62W 29N73W 27N80W. A
surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean along 71W/72W from 22N to
29N. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 24N to 30N between 66W and 71W.

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 92W/93W. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow and high level moisture span the Gulf of Mexico.

Broad surface low pressure extends from the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico northwestward to the NE coast of Mexico. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 28N southward from 90W
westward.

A surface ridge passes through the deep south of Texas, through
the coastal plains of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico.
Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/ AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: KMZG.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: light rain in McAllen. MVFR in Bay City and Huntsville.
from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: light rain
in Milton. Heavy rain at the Tampa Executive Airport.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 31N63W
to 24N65W, across Puerto Rico, into the Caribbean Sea near 15N66W,
to 12N63W. A surface trough is along 19N71W in the Dominican
Republic, to 16N73W, and 13N73W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong from 16N to 21N between 60W
and 73W, in some parts of Hispaniola, across the other islands,
and in the coastal waters. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere between
70W and 77W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from Venezuela and Colombia to the Greater Antilles
between 65W and the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. This drier
air is associated with the upper level trough that extends from
the central Atlantic Ocean to Puerto Rico.

Upper level NW wind flow covers much of the rest of the area,
away from the cyclonic wind flow that is associated with the
Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea upper level trough.

24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at 05/0000
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.17 in Curacao, 0.13 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.04 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving across the area, in
relation to the Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
from 16N to 21N between 60W and 73W, in some parts of Hispaniola,
across the other islands, and in the coastal waters. Rainshowers
are possible elsewhere between 70W and 77W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no
ceilings. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: from Barahona to Santo
Domingo to La Romana to Punta Cana: thunder and rain. Santiago
and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during day one. W and SW wind flow will move
across the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb
shows that variable but slightly anticyclonic wind flow will start
on day one, transitioning eventually into SW wind flow for the
rest of day one. W-to-SW wind flow will move across the area for
day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that S-to-SW wind
flow, with a ridge, will move across the area during day one.
Expect more southerly wind flow, in a ridge, for day two.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 30N northward
between 37W and 55W. This is the area of cyclonic wind flow that
used to be associated with the gale-force winds from 24 hours ago
to 48 hours ago. A cold front passes through 32N39W to 25N40W and
21N42W. A surface trough continues from 21N42W to 17N49W.
Convective precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are from 16N northward between 30W and
60W. Numerous strong from 12N to 14N between 55W and 58W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong from 10N to 16N between 50W and 60W.

Large-scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area
from 10N to 30N between 30W and 60W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow and a trough are between Africa
and 30W. The trough is along 33N18W 27N20W 02N28W. The trough
cuts across the area of the ITCZ. A surface trough passes through
32N17W, across the western sections of the Canary Islands, to
25N22W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 26N
between Africa and 23W. broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 16N northward from 30W
eastward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 16N northward
from 50W and 70W. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 28N57W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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