[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 AM EDT THU NOV 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A surface trough is along...30N49W to a 1007 mb low pressure
center that is near 24N52W, to 18N63W in the Caribbean Sea, to a
1010 mb low pressure center that is near 14N68W in the Caribbean
Sea. S to SW gale-force winds are present in the Atlantic Ocean,
from 21N to 25N within 120 nm to the SE of the 1007 mb low
pressure center and trough. Expect sea heights to range from 8
feet to 12 feet. Please read the High Seas Forecast...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details.

A deep layer trough passes through 32N56W to 22N60W, across Puerto
Rico, into the Caribbean Sea near 15N69W and 14N73W. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery to the
north and northwest of the trough, in the Atlantic Ocean, and in
the Caribbean Sea across most of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
Cuba. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 16N to 30N between 45W and 56W in the
Atlantic Ocean. Isolated moderate in the Caribbean Sea from 17N
southward between 60W and 70W. Isolated moderate in the Caribbean
Sea also from 17N southward from 70W westward.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal waters of Senegal near
13N17W. The ITCZ is along 13N17W 10N21W 07N25W 06N37W 09N50W
09N54W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is
from 30W eastward, across the area of the ITCZ. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 07N to 10N
between 11W and 14W including in Africa, from 04N to 05N between
18W and 20W, from 04N to 10N between 24W and 30W, and within 45 nm
on either side of 07N40W 08N42W 10N45W 10N47W 10N49W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 87W/88W. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow and high level moisture span the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
from 28N southward from 93W westward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico
everywhere away from the surface trough that is in the SW corner
of the area...to the NE of the line that runs from the deep south
of Texas to the Yucatan Peninsula.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: KBBF, KHHV, and KEMK.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Harlingen, Hebbronville, Falfurrias, Alice, at the
NAS Kingsville, and in Rockport. Light rain is being reported in
Palacios. MVFR in Pearland and Beaumont/Port Arthur. IFR in
Conroe and Huntsville. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Slidell. MISSISSIPPI:
LIFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: MVFR in parts of Birmingham. LIFR in
Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: MVFR at the NAS Pensacola and in Destin.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 14N northward between Puerto Rico and NW Cuba. This
drier air is associated with the upper level trough that extends
from the central Atlantic Ocean to Hispaniola.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean
Sea, from 75W westward, away from the comparatively drier air and
the Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough that is described in
the Special Feature section.

An east-to-west oriented surface trough is from 15N to 17N from
82W in the waters that are to the east of eastern Honduras and NE
Nicaragua, westward to Belize. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 15N to 18N between 83W
and land.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
03/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.07 in
Guadeloupe, 0.39 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper level northerly wind flow is moving across the area.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery across the entire area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: as of 03/0000
UTC, VFR/no ceilings. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: as of
03/0000 UTC, VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: light rain. La Romana: VFR/no ceilings. Punta Cana:
light rain. Santiago: VFR/no ceilings. Puerto Plata: MVFR ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that N and NW wind flow
will move across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that N wind flow will move across the
area for the next 24 hours. Day two will consist of northerly wind
flow for the first half of the day. The second half of day two
will consist of some northerly wind, and then SW wind flow with a
trough to the west of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700
mb shows that NE wind flow will move across the area during day
one. Day one will end with an inverted trough spanning the area. Day
two will start with the inverted trough across the area. Southerly
wind flow will move across the area for the rest of the day, after the
inverted trough moves southwestward.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Large-scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area
from 10N northward between 30W and 60W. Upper level northerly wind
flow and comparatively drier air in subsidence cover the Atlantic
Ocean to the west and northwest of the 32N56W-22N60W-Puerto Rico-
15N69W-14N73W Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough. This trough
is described in the Special Feature section.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow and a trough are between Africa
and 30W. The trough is along 32N24W 02N27W. The trough cuts across
the area of the ITCZ.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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