[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011108
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
708 AM EDT TUE NOV 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 12N20W 10N23W 09N27W. The ITCZ continues from
09N27W 07N36W to 06N44W. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 11N southward from 40W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to SE Louisiana.
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico 24N96W
19N93W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 21N to
27N between 91W and 96W.

Comparatively drier air is apparent in water vapor imagery to the
NE of the line that runs from SE Louisiana to NW Cuba.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow from 24N northward from 95W
eastward.

A shear line is along 26N75W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Andros
Island in the Bahamas, to 23N83W and 22N89W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate within a 30 nm radius of 24N85W.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: IFR in Edinburg. LIFR in Hebbronville, Falfurrias, Alice,
Kingsville, and Victoria. MVFR in Angleton/Lake Jackson. IFR in
Conroe. LIFR in Jasper. MVFR in Tomball. LOUISIANA: LIFR in Lake
Charles. MVFR in New Iberia. IFR in Patterson. MVFR in Amelia/Lake
Palourd. LIFR in Galliano. LIFR in Hammond and Slidell. MVFR at
the New Orleans Lakefront Airport. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Gulfport
and Pascagoula. ALABAMA: LIFR in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: MVFR at the
Naval Air Station in Pensacola. IFR in Perry. IFR at the Tampa
Executive Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
70W westward. Some of the upper level NW wind flow that is in the
Caribbean Sea from 70W eastward is related more to an upper level
trough that is more to the southeast, in the Atlantic Ocean. An
upper level ridge extends from 78W in Panama beyond the Yucatan
Channel.

A surface trough is within 90 nm of the coast of Central America
from 81W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to 18N87W near the
Mexico and Belize. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 13N southward from 74W westward. Numerous
strong off the coast of Belize within a 30 nm radius of 17N88W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 80W westward.
The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 73W in Colombia westward.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
28/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 1.33 in
Curacao, and 0.02 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola at this
moment. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N to
20N between Puerto Rico and Jamaica, across Hispaniola and in its
coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo:
thunder and rain have ended. VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus
clouds. Punta Cana: thunder and rain. Santiago: thunder and rain.
Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
cover Hispaniola for the next 2 days. The GFS MODEL forecast for
500 mb shows that NW and N wind flow will move across the area for
during the next few days. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows
that NE wind flow will move across the area during the next 2
days. An upper level trough will be to the E and SE of Hispaniola.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is passing through 32N59W to 24N66W, and
21N75W in the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air is apparent
in water vapor imagery to the N and NW of the trough. A surface
trough is along 30N65W 26N66W. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong within 60 nm on either side of 32N58W
27N64W 23N74W. A cold front passes through Bermuda, to 31N70W to
31N74W. A stationary front continues from 31N74W to 32N81W.

An upper level trough extends from a 30N47W cyclonic circulation
center, to 23N50W, 13N57W, to NE Venezuela. A surface trough
passes through 32N47W, to a 1011 mb low pressure center that is
near 30N48W, 26N50W 23N60W, to a 1006 mb low pressure center that
is just to the north of NW Puerto Rico. The trough continues from
the Puerto Rico low pressure center, across Hispaniola, to SW
Haiti. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 13N to 23N between 50W and 72W in the
Atlantic Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea. Numerous strong in the
Atlantic Ocean from 27N to 29N between 42W and 45W, and from 23N
to 26N between 37W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
elsewhere from 20N northward between 39W and 50W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N14W in the eastern
Atlantic Ocean, to 22N23W, to 15N31W, 08N42W, to northern
Suriname. A surface trough curves from 20N38W to 16N38W 14N42W.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 17N to 23N between 34W and 38W. Isolated moderate elsewhere
from 10N northward between Africa and 30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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