[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1014 mb low pressure is centered near 27N71W and is currently
interacting with a broad upper-level trough, supporting
scattered moderate convection northeast of the low from 28N-30N
between 68W-71W as well as near Jamaica, the southern Bahamas,
eastern Cuba, and Haiti.  A surface trough extends from 31N67w,
to the low, to 23N73W.  Environmental conditions are expected to
be generally conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to
form later today or Saturday while this system moves west-
northwestward or northwestward toward the southeastern United
States coast.  There is a high chance for this system to develop
into a tropical or subtropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.
For more information on this system, please refer to the
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers
TWOAT/ABNT20.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is emerging off of the coast of West Africa with
the axis extending from 14N15W to 07N15W.  The wave is a well-
defined 700 mb trough axis as seen in the GFS analysis and the
couple of West African rawindsondes.  The wave has a prominent
maximum of moisture along its axis, as depicted by the total
precipitable water imagery.  No significant deep convection is
present currently associated with the wave.

A tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic with axis that
extends from 10N47W to 01N48W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt over
the past 24 hours. This wave has become difficult to track and
only is weakly apparent in the SUNY-Albany tropical wave
diagnostics at 700 mb. No significant deep convection is present
currently associated with the wave.

A third tropical wave is located near the Windward Islands,
extending from 14N59W to 09N61W.  The wave is associated with a
maximum of moisture and surface to 850 mb cyclonic curvature of
the winds, though it is not apparent at 700 mb.  Scattered
moderate convection may be associated with the wave over
northern Colombia and Guyana.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the tropical Atlantic starting
at around 07N17W to 04N23W. The ITCZ begins near 04N23W and
continues to 05N43W. An area of scattered moderate convection
prevails within 60 nm of the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ from 18W to
25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends from a 1019 mb high near 28N84W in
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to the Texas coast.  Winds are
generally northeast to easterly 10-15 kt in the eastern Gulf and
southeast to southerly 15-20 kt in the western Gulf, peaking at
20-25 kt along the Texas coast and the northwestern Yucatan
coast. Only widely scattered showers are occurring within 120
nm of the Texas and southwest Florida coasts.  Winds will
further diminish over the next two days across the Gulf.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over
the northwestern Gulf today, but less likely on Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough that extends into the western Caribbean is
helping to induce scattered moderate convection near Jamaica,
the southern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and Haiti.  A 1010 mb low
that anchors the Northeast Pacific's Monsoon Trough is located
near 10N81W in the southwestern Caribbean.  Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the low. The
usual robust north-to-south pressure gradient over the Caribbean
is substantially reduced, and the resulting tradewinds are only
10-15 kt across the Caribbean, except 20 kt near the coast of
Colombia.  The combination of the upper trough, abundant
moisture, and the approaching easterly wave currently near the
Windward Islands may produced scattered to numerous moderate
convection with isolated to scattered deep convection over the
central Caribbean including the Greater Antilles during the next
two days.  The tradewinds will remain relatively weak through
Saturday.

HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level trough that extends into the western Caribbean is
helping to induce scattered moderate convection over Haiti.  The
combination of the upper trough, abundant moisture, and the
approaching easterly wave currently near the Windward Islands
may produced scattered to numerous moderate convection with
isolated to scattered deep convection over Hispaniola during the
next two days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on a low near
27N71W.  Elsewhere, surface ridging extends across the North
Atlantic from near the coast of North Carolina to a 1025 mb high
centered near 32N49W to 33N32W. The resulting modest pressure
gradient equatorward of the ridge is generally producing 10-20
kt tradewind easterlies.  Numerous cold, high clouds are
observed between 10N-15N east of 45W.  However, it is likely
that few showers are occurring below this primarily cirrus
cloudiness.  Continued relatively weak tradewinds and a lack of
large-scale convection are expected during the next couple of
days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

CWL
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