[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201024
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 10N14W to 07N20W where the ITCZ begins
and then extends to 04N37W to the coast of South America near
06N57W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 21W-
33W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 43W-
51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a stationary front extends across southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, then along Texas
coastal waters from 29N92W to 26N97W.  A squall line is over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Panhandle from
31N85W to 29N88W. Numerous strong convection is associated with
the squall line.  Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm
of the front.  Elsewhere scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms are over south Florida.  The remainder of the Gulf
has 10 kt SE surface flow with mostly fair weather. In the upper
levels...the base of an upper level trough is over Texas. Upper
level diffluence is east of the trough over the western Gulf
enhancing convection. Expect over the next 48 hours for a front
to be over the southern portions of the northern Gulf States
with convection. Also expect over the next 24 hours for the
upper level trough over Texas to move east to the western
Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure over the Atlantic continues to extend S-SW across
the northern Caribbean, thus generating a tight pressure gradient
that support fresh to near gale force winds S of 16N between 70W
and 78W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. The EPAC monsoon
trough is supporting scattered showers within 60 NM of the
southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama coasts. Fresh to
strong trades are in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate trades
prevail across the reminder of the basin. No major changes to
occur the next two days.

HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are across Haiti while fair weather is across
the remainder island. During the next two days, afternoon
showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across the
island due to moisture being carried by the trades coupled with
daytime heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A diffluent environment aloft along with moisture inflow from
the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean continue to support
scattered moderate convection over the western Atlantic N of 26N
W of 71W. Further east, the tail end of a cold front extends
from 31N67W to 28N73W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
trough.  A 1029 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic
near 32N42W. Expect over the next 24 hours for a cold front to
dip into the central Atlantic from the north and reach 31N60W
with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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