[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE FORECAST UNTIL 16/1200 UTC...GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR...AGADIR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 07N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N17W TO
04N20W TO 02N35W AND 02N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM
THE SURFACE TROUGHS...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 09W AND 21W...AND FROM 03N TO
05N BETWEEN 23W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16W/17W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 02N
TO 07N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
51W/52W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN
50W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS TO THE EAST OF A COLD
FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS IN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS JUST
BEFORE ENTERING THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH U.S.A. GULF COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N91W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KHHV.

VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR TO MVFR IN THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COASTAL PLAINS NEAR ALICE AND CORPUS CHRISTI. LIFR IN
CONROE AND HUNTSVILLE. FROM LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO
CEILINGS. FLORIDA...GREATER VISIBILITY NOW IN PUNTA
GORDA...AFTER IFR VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN 2 MILES FOR THE NEXT-
TO-LAST OBSERVATION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
19N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE LINGERING RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 66W
AND 80W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...FROM
84W IN NICARAGUA EASTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.06 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS
HISPANIOLA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
LINGERING RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 80W.
THE AREA THAT IS COVERED BY THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION INCLUDES...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS
AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET...VFR. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO
PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE WIND FLOW WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY RIGHT AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL BE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT THE WIND
FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SWITCHING TO NORTHEAST...AND
THEN EASTERLY...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE IS IN THE
VICINITY.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
31N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W FROM 26N TO 30N. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 24N TO 29N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 73W AND 74W...AND
FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
26N TO 28N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W.

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 31N37W. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM
THE TROUGH WESTWARD TO 60N FROM 20N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 36N21W. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
33N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net