[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE TO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 05N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N15W TO
05N27W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N28W TO 02N28W. THE ITCZ
RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH NEAR 05N30W TO 05N40W. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N41W TO 00N42W. THE ITCZ RESUMES AGAIN
FROM 04N43W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N70W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W. THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NE GULF N OF 28N. ELSEWHERE RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE GEORGIA COAST. THE GULF OF
MEXICO HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM S
FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
S GULF S 27N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SURFACE
SE FLOW OVER THE GULF WITH ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO THE SE GULF FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N...PANAMA
...AND N COLOMBIA. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-74W.
FURTHER S...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR
09N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA
AND W VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 72W-77W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
IS OVER HAITI NEAR 20N72W. SW FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO DRIFT W TOWARDS COSTA RICA. ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD E OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EASTERLIES.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO BOTH THE TRADEWINDS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 30N W OF 80W DUE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N70W WITH FAIR WEATHER. FURTHER E...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N66W TO 27N69W TO 23N70W MOVING W. THE
TROUGH IS PRESENTLY MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. A 1025 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N47W ALSO WITH FAIR
WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MOROCCO AT
31N06W TO S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 27N15W. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW OVER HAITI IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N-
22N BETWEEN 60W-70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH TO MOVE E TO 30N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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