[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061718
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 05N26W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N26W AND
EXTENDS TO 03N38W TO 05N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W OF THE
ITCZ FROM 10N53W TO 07N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
02N TO 06N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N96W. WITH
THIS...A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE
BASIN. TO THE SE...A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR SPREADS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 24N88W TO 25N80W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH
TO MOVE NE NEAR ARKANSAS WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING OVER
THE NW GULF. FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN ANALYZED AS A
COLD FRONT FROM 14N84W TO 19N77W THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM
THAT POINT INTO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 22N74W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 11N84W TO 15N78W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 15N
AND W OF 80W. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO
INDUCING CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS ARE RANGING
BETWEEN 4 TO 6 INCHES AS REPORTED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
OFFICE OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY
THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. EXPECT DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA AS WELL AS THEIR ADJACENT
WATERS.


HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE MOVING OVER THE ISLAND AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT A SIMILAR
WEATHER REGIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT REMAINS
STATIONARY TO THE W OF THE ISLAND. URBAN FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 25N80W TO 30N76W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE E...A
STATIONARY EXTENDS FROM 21N75W TO 32N67W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAINLY N OF 23N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N44W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO
PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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