[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE TO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N16W TO 02N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
02N23W AND EXTENDS TO 02N35W TO 03N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 08N45W TO 03N46W TO 00N46W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE
TROUGH AT 03N47W AND EXTENDS TO BRAZIL AT 00N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-06N BETWEEN 03W-35W...AND FROM
05N-09N BETWEEN 40W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W TO NEAR
COATZACOALCOS MEXICO AT 19N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION E OF THE FRONT FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 80W-88W.
10-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF FRONT. 10-15 KT S FLOW IS E OF
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. THE
DIFFLUENT FLOW THAT WAS OVER FLORIDA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE N
BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 08N76W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NORTH COLOMBIA
FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 72W-77W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER E HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. NORTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER
COSTA RICA...W NICARAGUA... W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR AND S
GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
BE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. ALSO IN 24 HOURS PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND W CUBA.

HISPANIOLA...

ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER E HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER E HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA
N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-80W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 29N57W TO
23N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1025
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N35W. A 1010 MB LOW
IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 34N14W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A
COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N77W TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. MORE SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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