[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE TO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N12W TO 03N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 03N18W AND
EXTENDS TO 03N30W TO 02N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
09N42W TO 00N42W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N44W TO BRAZIL NEAR
02S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-01S BETWEEN 18W-
37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 38W-
42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO TAMPICO
MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF FRONT. 10 KT SE TO S
FLOW IS E OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE E
GULF AND FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 86W-
90W...AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 80W-86W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT TONIGHT IFR AND LIFR DUE
TO FOG N OF 24N E OF FRONT. FINALLY EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS SMOKE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 24N E OF FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N74W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. 10-20
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...W NICARAGUA... W
HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.

HISPANIOLA...

ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE W
ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA W OF 80W N OF 27N DUE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N65W. ANOTHER 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE AZORES NEAR
39N27W. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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