[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W
TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N29W TO
4N41W TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 150 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 19W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N E
OF 30W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM
S MEXICO/E BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
IS SUPPORTING A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE CONUS
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TEXAS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 27N
BETWEEN 86W-96W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT PATCHES
OF FOG OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
IS ANCHORED OVER S GEORGIA BY A 1015 MB HIGH. LOCALLY DENSE FOG
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW AND N/CENTRAL GULF OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW GULF LATE MON AND REACH FROM PENSACOLA
FLORIDA THROUGH 24N95W TO 18N95W TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SHIFT W DURING THE EVENING HOURS
THROUGH MON EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPPING
S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 14N W OF 76W TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. CARIBBEAN RADARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 76W-83W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS COVER THE SE CARIBBEAN SE OF LINE FROM OVER MARTINIQUE
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE ABC ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA. FRESH TO STRONG SE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY MON ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN N OF NW VENEZUELA. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF HONDURAS TO 18N THROUGH TUE
AND INCREASING TO STRONG EACH NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED OFF THE
S COAST OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MON AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W
ATLC WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N67W ALONG
30N74W TO 31N77W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTED BY THIS
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N70W ALONG 22N72W TO HAITI NEAR
20N73W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-23N TO OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 60W-69W. A THIRD
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N57W THROUGH A WEAK 1015 MB LOW
NEAR 24N60W TO 22N63W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE E ATLC
EXTENDS FROM S SPAIN ACROSS THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 31N38W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N35W THROUGH A WEAK 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 25N37W TO 21N38W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 26W-35W. THE W
ATLC COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SE THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING AND
DISSIPATE THERE BY LATE SUN. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SUN STRETCHING ALONG 30N MON AND BEGIN TO
SHIFT E MON NIGHT AND TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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