[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...RIDGING NE OF THE BASIN AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN AND NEAR TO GALE-FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...SEAS IN THE GALE REGION
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE-FORCE
AT SUNRISE BUT WILL INCREASE BACK TO GALE FORCE NW OF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. SEE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CONFINED TO INTERIOR AFRICA. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N15W TO 04N20W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W THEN TO
THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S42W. ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS PRESENT.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W SW TO
25N93W TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W. FRESH TO NEAR
GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT S OF 26N WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT. THE LATEST SCAT PASS INDICATE THERE ARE FRESH TO NEAR
GALE FORCE S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N TO 84W.
LIGHT TO MODERATE S FLOW IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. A BROAD DIFFLUENT REGION IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE NE BASIN AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THAT ALONG WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...AS INDICATED BY THE GOES LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE WESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 23N88W TO 18N92W WITH SHOWERS COVERING
THE SW BASIN S OF 22N. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF AT 25N90W WHERE IT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY TO THE SW GULF NEAR 18N93W BY FRI NIGHT.THE
FRONT WILL BECOME FULLY STATIONARY EARLY SAT...BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NW AS A WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE STRONGEST NW OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...AS IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. E TO SE FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
FRI AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER REIGN OVER THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR...AS SHOWN IN CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINOUS OR CENTRAL REGION OF HISPANIOLA IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N42W THROUGH
26N50W WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. W OF THE FRONT...OVER THE SW N
ATLC...THE GOES LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT SHOW HEAVY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA N OF
28N. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXTENDING TO THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE RETURN
FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN W OF 50W AROUND THE BROAD RIDGE THAT
COVERS THE ATLC WATERS. THE EXCEPTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA WHERE
WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FRONT WILL COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE THE REMAINDER PORTION WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH.
HIGH PRES AND RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. A 1030 MB
HIGH IS LOCATED NE OF THE FRONT WITH BROAD RIDGING COVERING THE
BASIN SW OF THERE AND N OF THE ITCZ. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
TRADES DOMINATE THE BASIN E OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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