[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN 48 HOURS...

THE 12-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 13 FEET FROM 10.5N
TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...THAT IS NEAR
10N16W...TO 06N16W AND 04N20W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 02N22W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 26W...TO 01S31W AND 02S39W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
14N SOUTHWARD FROM 24W EASTWARD. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 42W AND NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A...FROM
IOWA AND MISSOURI INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
EAST TEXAS...TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST...AND THEN INTO INTERIOR
MEXICO NEAR 26N101W AND 30N108W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN
75 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT...FROM 27N TO
30N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...THAT IS NEAR 26N95W...TO MEXICO NEAR 25N101W. A SQUALL
LINE IS INLAND...WITHIN 45 NM TO 75 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT...FROM 30N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W...IN PARTS OF COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...AND IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE FROM 22N98W BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

IFR CONDITIONS...KGBK...KGRY...AND KMIS.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KVAF...KEHC...KVQT...KGHB...KATP...KEIR...
KMDJ...KIKT...KVOA...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE
LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL
AREAS. RAIN AND THUNDER IN GALLIANO AND GRAND ISLE. MVFR IN PORT
FOURCHON. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN THE BOOTHVILLE METROPOLITAN
AREA...AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...RAIN AND
THUNDER EVERYWHERE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. ALABAMA...RAIN AND
THUNDER IN THE MOBILE METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR IN GULF SHORES.
FLORIDA...IFR IN PENSACOLA. MVFR FROM CRESTVIEW WESTWARD
ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INCLUDING IN DESTIN/
VALPARAISO/MARY ESTHER. MVFR IN PARTS OF THE FORT MYERS
METROPOLITAN AREA...IN NAPLES...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN
KEY WEST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...TO HISPANIOLA...TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO
DOMINGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...A CLOUD
CEILING AT 2000 FEET...MVFR.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THE CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO SLIGHT
CHANGES IN THE ORIENTATION OF A RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER STARTS ON TOP OF JAMAICA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF DAY ONE...BEING
FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 71W. THE PATH OF THE
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL END UP BEING SOMEWHAT CIRCULAR...
PASSING THROUGH 21N68W DURING DAY TWO...AND ENDING UP TO THE
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N72W AT THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 27N50W 25N60W
AND 24N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W...25N50W
22N63W 23N80W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 33N44W...THROUGH A 1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N60W...TO 32N74W...BEYOND
SOUTH CAROLINA.

A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N29W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
TO THE EAST OF THE 32N40W 24N72W STATIONARY FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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