[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR
NORTHERN COLOMBIA ADJACENT WATERS FROM 10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN
74W AND 77W STARTING EARLY MORNING WED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE LATER ON WED MORNING AS A CENTER OF
HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC MOVES E AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA
WEAKENS. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS GUINEA BISSAU AFRICA INTO THE
E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 04N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S30W THEN TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
03S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S TO 04N
BETWEEN 02W AND 07W AND FROM 03S TO 02N BETWEEN 23W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE HAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC
TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. THE RIDGE IS
BEING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI
NEAR 29N88W THAT PROVIDES LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS N OF 26N W OF THE
HIGH AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW ELSEWHERE. MIDDLE-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE TROPICAL EPAC SUPPORTS BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. IN THE NORTHERN BASIN...FAIR WEATHER IS BEING
INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRES WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND THEN INTO W ATLC
WATERS DURING TUE...AND RETURN FLOW WILL ESTABLISH. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY THU MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH BASE
REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N79W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT...WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OF DRY STABLE AIR THAT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WIND IS W OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS OVER
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA ADJACENT WATERS. MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE. WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE TO
GALE-FORCE STARTING EARLY WED MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NW BASIN LATER
THIS MORNING THEN WILL WEAKEN ON WED.

HISPANIOLA...

SKIES CONTINUE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE FRONT OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN WATERS IS EXPECTED TO STALL LATER THIS MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH BASE
REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N79W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR
16N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC BEING ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 31N34W. THE COLD
FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N53W TO 23N61W ON TUE NIGHT THEN WILL
BECOME STATIONARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY WED BEFORE DISSIPATING
THU. A RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA EARLY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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