[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 6N15W TO 3N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N57W 2N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S
AND 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 43W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE NE CONUS SUPPORTING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES JUST INLAND ALONG THE N GULF COAST. A
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER
THE GULF AND W ATLC ALONG 80W GIVING THE GULF BASIN SW FLOW
ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N GULF OF 25N. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC WITH A 1019 MB
HIGH IN FLORIDA BAY NEAR 25N82W. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER ALONG
THE N GULF AND WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AND THEN SHIFT E OF THE
GULF LATER TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE N GULF
LATE THU. A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 24N96W ON
FRI THEN MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS
A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC ALONG
80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING TWO AREAS OF
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. ONE AREA IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 59W-65W AND THE SECOND IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF
LINE FROM OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W TO 17N79W INCLUDING
JAMAICA. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC COUPLED WITH THE LOWER
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU SHIFTING TO ONLY OVER
HAITI THU THROUGH EARLY SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC ALONG 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS INTO THE
N/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N62W ALONG 28N63W TO 26N66W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 24N70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-29N
BETWEEN 55W-61W. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N25W ALONG
27N31W TO 23N38W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 21N46W. A WEAKENING
SURFACE RIDGE IS WEDGED BETWEEN THE ABOVE FRONTS WITH A 1018 MB
HIGH NEAR 24N50W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONTS WITH A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF
PORTUGAL AND A WEAKER 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 24N25W. THE W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK TROUGHS PASSING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH FRI. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE N FLORIDA ON
SAT NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net